Kenya is at the cusp of a demographic shift exemplified by an increasing population of the elderly and the youth, presenting the country with a mix of challenges and opportunities.
The country’s population of older persons increased by about 41 per cent from 1,943,715 in 2009 to 2,740,040 in 2019 while the youth population increased from 11,089,518 to 13,177,600 in the same decade. The youth population grew from 3,201,192 in 1989 to 13,177,600 in 2019, and is expected to increase to 18,966,737 by 2035.
According to National Treasury and Economic Planning Cabinet Secretary Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u, this demographic shift presents anxiety due to lack of commensurate job opportunities, and the expected high demand for social protection services.
“The youth bulge presents the country with significant economic and social opportunities but also challenges concerning health, education, skills training, labour market needs, employment, and digital addiction,” notes Prof. Ndung’u in the 2023 State of Kenya Population Report.
“Realisation of the demographic dividend depends on the ability of the economy to employ the youth and turn the youth bulge into a blessing,” he says.
According to the study, in each of the Kenya’s 47 counties, the proportion of the youth population is more than 20 per cent. Nairobi County has the highest proportion at 41 per cent followed by Mombasa County at 37 per cent. Counties with the lowest proportion of youth to the total population are Vihiga at 23 per cent followed by Muranga, Nyandarua, Kitui and Mandera counties at 24 per cent each.
Concerns over the high youth unemployment have led the government to implement a series of programmes in recent years, including the Kazi Kwa Vijana that aimed at employing between 200,000-300,000 youths annually in the rural and urban areas, the revamped National Youth Service Programme, and rolling out the Youth Enterprise Fund that has advanced more than Ksh5.6 billion worth of loans to 1,159,393 people and supported 8,191 markets for their produce.
The Kenya Youth Employment Opportunities Programme (KYEOP) is estimated to have trained over 33,000 youths.
“With about 800,000 youths entering the job market each year in Kenya, the economy has to provide the necessary formal and informal employment opportunities, investment in the youth should be a priority for the government to turn them into a blessing,” notes the report.
Ageing Anxiety
The anxiety around Kenya’s increasing number of ageing persons include income insecurity and social protection, health concerns and insurance, violence, abuse, digital exclusion, property inheritance anxiety and disability.
“To enhance the well-being of senior citizen, the government should mainstream ageing in the budgetary process through an analysis of budget allocations to assess if expenditure is equitably allocated between different age groups,” the reports authors said.
Apart from the anxieties around the youth bulge and the rapid increase in the number of people living beyond 60 years, the report also focuses on migration in the context of Kenya’s urbanization process, declining fertility and its implication on the future population size and implication climate change on the country’s effort to achieve sustainable development.
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