Kenya’s population is expected to reach 84.7 million by 2050 and grow to 112.4 million people by 2100 according to data from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The report estimates the current population at 56.2 million people meaning the country is expected to double its population in the next 78 years.
On July 11th, the DESA published a 2022 revision of ‘World Population Prospects,’ presenting the latest global population estimates and projections. The key messages from the report indicate that “rapid population growth is both a cause and a consequence of slow progress in development” and that population data are critical for development planning.
Across East Africa, DRC is expected to leapfrog Ethiopia as the regions most populous country to reach 430.9 million people by 2100 up from the current 97.4 million. Ethiopia is expected to be the second most populous with the population tripling from the current 121.8 million to 323.2 million.
Furthermore, Tanzania is expected to grow four folds from 64.5 million to 243.9 million by 2100 while Uganda is poised to overtake Kenya reaching 131.9 million people by 2100 up from 46.8 million in 2022.
Across Sub Saharan Africa, the population is expected to grow from 1.12 billion in 2022 to 2.09 billion by 2050 and eventually 3.43 billion by 2100. This means Sub Saharan Africa will account for over 33% of the world’s total population by 2100.
Furthermore, the share of working-age population has been on the rise, representing a significant demographic dividend, or a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.
Nigeria is projected to maintain its position as Africa’s most populous country reaching 545 million people by 2100, while South Africa is expected to record very slow growth from 59.6 million in 2022 to 74.6 million by 2100.
From the report, the world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down. The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, but it is now growing at its slowest rate since 1950.
The report also expects the world’s population to peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, with China expected to experience an absolute decline in its population.