Kenya’s preferential procurement framework for youth, women and persons with disabilities has entered a new expansion cycle, with fresh KNBS data showing a sharp rebound in the value of tenders awarded across the public sector.
- •The awards nearly doubled from KSh 25.86 billion in FY2022/23 to KSh 51.18 billion in FY2023/24, before rising further to KSh 56.82 billion in FY2024/25.
- •This marks a decisive reversal after a two-year slump blamed on post-pandemic austerity, delayed Exchequer releases and widespread procurement freezes.
- •The fiscal environment appears to have loosened enough in 2023/24 to allow ministries, parastatals and counties to revive stalled tenders, pulling AGPO allocations upward with them.
AGPO (Access to Government Procurement Opportunities) programme requires that all public procuring entities to reserve a minimum of thirty per cent of their annual procurement spending for award to Youth, Women and Persons with Disabilities (PWDs). This facilitates the enterprises owned by this group of persons to be able to participate in Government opportunities.
A closer look shows that the rebound is less about structural strengthening of the AGPO ecosystem and more a reflection of broader procurement recovery. During the downturn years, overall public tendering contracted, and AGPO, being a fixed percentage of total procurement, fell alongside it. The bounce since 2023/24 therefore mirrors improvements in the wider procurement cycle rather than targeted reforms focused on special-interest groups.
Among youth-owned firms, awards climbed from KSh 9.48 billion to KSh 16.89 billion, and then KSh 18.75 billion, driven largely by counties. County executives alone accounted for more than KSh 7.6 billion in FY2024/25, making them the single largest youth-procurement channel. The sharp swings across years suggest erratic planning and a reliance on a handful of high-value infrastructure-related purchases that disproportionately benefit youth-registered contractors. Ministries and state corporations posted steady gains, but the volatility across institutions points to cyclical tendering rather than consistent adherence to the 30 percent reservation rule.
Women-owned enterprises continue to anchor AGPO performance, absorbing over KSh 33.12 billion in FY2024/25, nearly 60% of all AGPO spending. The concentration of awards among women suppliers is structurally linked to the higher rate of formal business registration by women’s groups, especially in retail, supply and service sectors that dominate government procurement. State corporations remain the programme’s backbone, issuing KSh 15.48 billion in awards in 2024/25, nearly equal to the combined allocations of all counties. The dependence on large parastatals raises concerns that AGPO outcomes remain vulnerable to the financial health and procurement cycles of a few big institutions.
For PWDs, the KNBS data shows the fastest growth rate but from the smallest base: awards rose from KSh 2.90 billion in 2022/23 to KSh 4.95 billion in 2024/25. The small share underscores long-standing structural barriers, including low registration, limited access to digital procurement tools and difficulty meeting technical specifications in tenders. The stagnation of PWD awards in several entities, including near-zero allocations by some county corporations, suggests that compliance is largely procedural rather than developmental.
The overarching trend reveals a programme heavily shaped by fiscal cycles. When government liquidity tightens, AGPO shrinks; when spending resumes, allocations rise. This tight coupling suggests that AGPO remains more of a derivative outcome of general procurement activity than a strategic empowerment tool with insulated budgets and dedicated oversight.
