Africa’s aviation market is growing faster than Asia’s for the first time on record and Boeing wants investors to pay attention.
- •In an interview with The Kenyan Wallstreet, Henok Teferra Shawl, Managing Director for Africa at Boeing says he pays attention to the continent’s GDP.
- •Countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda are expanding even faster, feeding a structural rise in travel demand.
“Because the numbers and the data say so,” Shawl said in an interview. “African economies, on average according to IMF, World Bank, UN data are growing at around 5% GDP. And there is a quasi-automatic correlation between GDP growth and passenger growth.”
According to Shawl, the inflection point is already visible in the data.
“If you look at IATA’s reports from December 2025, for the first time African passenger growth and capacity deployed outpaced that of Asia. Asia is still much bigger in volume, but the growth rate was faster here than in Asia for the first time.”
For aircraft manufacturers and lessors, growth rates, not absolute volumes, signal future order books.
Boeing’s own 20-year forecast for Africa has been steadily revised upward.
“Three years ago, we were saying Africa will need 1,000-plus aircraft over the next 20 years. Last year, roughly 1,200. Now we’re saying 1,700,” Shawl said. “You see, the dynamic is there.”
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Urbanisation, airport construction and rising disposable incomes are compounding the demographic tailwind. Africa’s population of roughly 1.5 billion is projected to approach 2.5 billion within decades, skewed young and increasingly mobile.
“The younger generation is very much interested in travel, connecting, discovering other cultures and regions,” Shawl said. “It’s the reality of the numbers.”
For investors, that translates into long-cycle capital deployment, aircraft, infrastructure, training ecosystems and leasing platforms.
Roughly 70% of expected new deliveries to Africa will be single-aisle aircraft, including models like the 737 MAX.
Shawl frames the issue not as a financing constraint but as a business model discipline.
“It’s about matching your network plan and your schedule with the right aircraft, with the right capacity and the right range,” he said. “Successful airlines operate on a commercial basis. They understand it’s about profitability across the network.”
Single-aisle aircraft allow carriers to optimise load factors, manage fuel efficiency and keep operating costs tight, crucial in markets with price-sensitive demand and currency volatility.
Access to capital remains uneven across the continent.
“Africa is 54 countries, a lot of airlines of different sizes, different balance sheets,” Shawl said.
Established carriers such as Ethiopian Airlines can tap global markets with relative ease.
“An airline like Ethiopian can go into the global marketplace because of its balance sheet, its credibility, its size. It will not have problems in terms of financing.”
Startups face a steeper climb.
“Any start-up airline, anywhere in the world, and particularly in Africa will have difficulty. So you need the right strategic partnerships in place.”
Those partnerships may include leasing arrangements, technical support agreements and commercial feed traffic deals. In a capital-intensive industry, scale and collaboration are risk mitigants.
Shawl argues that reducing the continent’s risk premium requires policy execution, not just capital.
READ; Africa's Aviation Sector to Withstand US Travel Restrictions, Demand to Grow 8%-IATA
He points to the African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market initiative, a plan to liberalise intra-African skies.
“Making sure Africa becomes one market is key. Opening up African skies for African airlines, without limitations on where they can fly, frequency or aircraft type, that’s very important,” he said.
Thirty-five countries have ratified the framework, but full implementation remains incomplete.
Visa liberalisation is equally critical.
“African citizens must be able to travel across Africa without restrictions. That is very important for movement.”
For lenders and insurers, regulatory clarity and market integration lower structural risk, and borrowing costs.
Beyond aircraft, Boeing sees human capital as Africa’s underpriced asset.
The manufacturer projects the continent will require 74,000 aviation professionals over the next two decades, pilots, engineers and technicians.
Shawl thinks that estimate may prove conservative.
“We need to be even more ambitious. This is a continent of today of 1.5 billion people, going to 2.5 billion, mainly young and trainable,” he said. “In other parts of the world, the population is ageing and retiring. Africa can fulfil global aviation demand if we avail the necessary training.”
Boeing’s approach operates on three levels including STEM programmes for high school students across Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and South Africa, curriculum and certification support for airline training academies, partnerships with universities to develop aviation-focused degree programmes
“It’s a multi-stakeholder effort, industry, government and airlines together,” Shawl said.
For investors, workforce localisation reduces foreign exchange leakage tied to outsourced maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services and builds durable ecosystems.
Financing Platforms: Nigeria as Test Case
Boeing is also positioning itself as a facilitator, not just a manufacturer.
Shawl cited a memorandum of understanding with the government of Nigeria designed to convene lessors, financiers and local airlines onto a shared platform.
“We are facilitating the creation of a platform where global lessors, Nigerian airlines, financiers and government can come together so aircraft are availed to Nigerian airlines,” he said.
For more mature carriers like Ethiopian Airlines, Boeing supports fleet expansion through U.S. export credit guarantees that help unlock bank financing.
“We have many financing support mechanisms where we facilitate platforms between airlines, lessors and financiers,” Shawl said.
