With the dust settling after recent missile exchanges between Iran and Israel and U.S. military activity simmering rather than escalating, Kenya is watching the unfolding tensions with cautious concern- not only for their impact on global oil prices and trade, but also for the broader implication on its own national and regional security.
- •While the Middle East conflict may seem far removed, it is increasingly casting a long shadow over East Africa, reigniting fears of regional instability and terrorism.
- •The recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure, including gas-processing plants and fuel depots- have inflamed a broader proxy war that stretches well beyond the borders of Israel or Iran.
- •Already, the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows, faces disruption threats, and regional actors aligned with Iran, such as the Houthis in Yemen, are stepping up hostilities. It is this growing influence of Iranian-linked proxy groups that raises red flags for Kenya’s security apparatus.
In recent months, the Houthis have expanded their strategic reach, attacking vessels in the Red Sea and threatening maritime corridors vital to East African trade. These actions are not merely about territorial defense, they are part of a broader ideological and geopolitical alignment. Kenya, with its geographical proximity and its history of terror attacks, could be pulled into the periphery of this global standoff.
Kenya has endured multiple high-profile terrorist attacks in the past decade, many orchestrated by the Somalia-based militant group the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab. From the 2013 Westgate Mall siege to the Garissa University College massacre in 2015, and the Dusit D2 complex attack in 2019, Kenya has felt the brutality of extremist violence first-hand. These incidents have not only cost lives but shaken national confidence and strained resources.
What is particularly concerning in the current context is the ideological kinship- and possible strategic alignment- between Al-Shabaab and other Iran-aligned militant groups like the Houthis. While Al-Shabaab traditionally operates under the Sunni extremist umbrella and the Houthis follow a Shia-aligned doctrine, their mutual hostility toward Western influence and shared interest in destabilizing pro-Western governments creates a convergence point. In times of heightened global conflict, such lines tend to blur, especially when united by anti-U.S or anti-Israel narratives.
Kenya’s increasing cooperation with Western allies, including its longstanding partnership with the U.S. in counterterrorism operations, may also paint it as a target in the eyes of radical groups seeking to retaliate. The conflict has amplified anti-Western sentiment across various regions, and there is growing concern that East Africa- given its mix of strategic location, fragile borders, and exposed civilian hubs, could be seen as a vulnerable extension of the larger battleground.
As counterterrorism expert Andrew Franklin notes, “The current state of the ‘terrorism threat’ to those living and doing business in Kenya is incalculable.”
He continues, “That is because, 14 years after KDF crossed into Somalia to degrade or destroy the Islamist Al-Shabaab, that armed militia remains a significant threat to the beleaguered FGS in Mogadishu; the international border is porous and largely ungoverned. Results of the GOK War on Terror are shrouded in mystery. However, 14 years of documented or anecdotal evidence suggest that GOK authority is tenuous across much of the Five Frontline Counties of Northeast Kenya.”
Franklin adds a broader warning: “Kenya suffers from a myriad of legal and criminal problems developing over time from its generalized administrative disarray and well-known environment of impunity. Its security forces are poorly organized, trained, paid, or commanded. Personnel are either haphazardly deployed or tied down maintaining law and order.” He cautions that “Violent extremism (i.e. terrorism) is just one of the headline risks associated with the country’s environment of insecurity and lawlessness.”
While the headlines have focused on energy and inflation, Kenya’s greatest exposure to the Israel-Iran war may be its internal security. The ripple effects of distant wars often strike hardest at fault lines closer to home, and in this case, the ideological spillover is palpable. As the Middle East teeters on the edge of wider war, Kenya must remain vigilant- not just at its ports and pipelines, but within its borders, communities, and digital spaces. The threat may not arrive as a missile, but as a message, a network, or an opportunistic act of terror.
For Kenya, this is a critical moment. The lessons of past attacks must guide current action, and the rising tide of global extremism must be countered with local resilience, regional cooperation, and unflinching intelligence work. The Israel-Iran war may be thousands of miles away, but its flashpoints could ignite threats closer to home.
