In an age of polycrisis, resilience is not simply about survival; it is about future-proofing institutional destiny. Writes Nicasio Karani Migwi, Founder, MD and CEO of Afromaximus Consult and Afromillenium Awards.
The global operating environment has entered an era of sustained volatility, where shocks are more frequent, more interconnected and faster-moving than at any point in recent history.
Governments, businesses and households alike are being tested by a convergence of political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal disruptions that increasingly occur simultaneously rather than in isolation. In this context, institutional resilience, the capacity to anticipate, absorb, adapt to and ultimately thrive amid disruption, has become a core determinant of long-term survival and competitiveness.
What distinguishes today’s risk landscape is not only the number of crises but the way they interact. As Columbia University historian Adam Tooze has argued, the world is now living through a “polycrisis,” where distinct shocks compound one another, producing effects far greater than the sum of their individual impacts.
Ultimately, the defining feature of the current global environment is the persistence of volatility.
The Cascade Institute similarly defines a global polycrisis as one in which failures across multiple systems become causally entangled, degrading humanity’s prospects because of deep interconnections. In practical terms, this means that a geopolitical shock can rapidly morph into an inflationary surge, a financial crisis, a fiscal squeeze and a social stress test- often within months.
Recent history illustrates this accelerating pattern. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, the dot-com collapse of the early 2000s, the US subprime mortgage crisis that triggered the 2007–2010 Global Financial Crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed all unfolded over distinct cycles. By contrast, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020–2021 compressed health, economic, fiscal, foreign exchange and financial crises into a single global shock, pushing most economies into recession almost simultaneously.
Before the world had fully recovered, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a fresh cascade: imported inflation, sharp interest rate tightening, capital flight into US dollar assets, currency depreciation, food and fertilizer shortages, and an energy shock as oil and gas prices surged.
Resilience is no longer a defensive concept; it is a strategic imperative.
These pressures have been compounded by widening fiscal vulnerabilities. Heavy pandemic-era borrowing, combined with weaker currencies, increased the burden of foreign-currency debt and led to sovereign downgrades in several economies, raising risk premiums and financing costs. At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation has accelerated.
Rising defense spending across NATO countries, Japan and South Korea, alongside shifting alliances, reflects a more militarized global order. More recently, the United States’ reciprocal tariff measures announced in April 2025 have intensified trade tensions, further straining global supply chains and reinforcing a trend toward economic fragmentation.
Taken together, these developments point to a structural transition in the global system. Multilateral institutions face declining enforcement power, de-dollarization efforts are gaining traction, the BRICS bloc continues to expand, and the global centre of economic gravity is steadily shifting back toward Asia, led by China, India, Japan and Indonesia. Overlaying these shifts are longer-term transformations, including the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the net-zero energy transition targeted for 2050, and profound demographic changes. Against this backdrop, resilience is no longer a defensive concept; it is a strategic imperative.
Institutional Resilience is More Important than Ever
Institutional resilience is commonly defined as the ability to anticipate, respond to and adapt to rapid change while minimizing damage and maximizing opportunity. At its core, it reflects an institution’s capacity not only to withstand shocks but to maintain essential functions and identity, and where necessary, to transform. Leading frameworks emphasize that resilience cuts across strategy, operations, technology, finance, governance and culture.
In practice, resilience strategies tend to fall into three broad categories: defensive, neutral and offensive. Defensive resilience focuses on protecting the core of the institution during periods of stress. This includes strengthening business models and innovation capabilities so that organizations can adapt rather than merely endure disruption. Regular reassessment of strategic choices, restructuring underperforming segments and rethinking value propositions, customer segments, revenue streams and cost structures are critical in ensuring that business models remain relevant under changing market conditions.
Consistent, targeted sustainability initiatives help maintain stakeholder confidence and reduce reputational risk when external scrutiny intensifies.
Digital and technological resilience has become equally central as institutions rely more heavily on interconnected systems. The objective is to ensure continuity of operations through and beyond disruptions such as cyberattacks or system failures. Regulatory initiatives, such as the European Union’s Digital Operational Resilience Act, underscore the growing expectation that institutions- particularly in finance- must demonstrate robust information security, data protection and incident response capabilities. Investment in cybersecurity infrastructure, including round-the-clock security operations and early-warning systems, is increasingly non-negotiable.
Financial resilience underpins all other forms of institutional strength. It rests on prudent balance-sheet management, diversified revenue streams, disciplined cost control and robust risk management. For financial institutions, this often translates into building liquidity buffers, strengthening asset quality through adequate provisioning, and maintaining strong capital positions via retained earnings or supplementary capital from long-term partners such as development finance institutions. More broadly, financial resilience provides the flexibility to absorb shocks without compromising strategic intent.
Neutral resilience strategies are designed to preserve trust, credibility and internal effectiveness during periods of uncertainty. Brand, environmental, social and governance resilience reflects an institution’s ability to align its actions with stated values and purpose, even under pressure. Consistent, targeted sustainability initiatives help maintain stakeholder confidence and reduce reputational risk when external scrutiny intensifies.
Closely linked is organizational resilience, which depends on decision-making quality, leadership coherence and institutional agility. Organizations that can decentralize authority, act quickly on reliable information and learn from stress events tend to recover faster and emerge stronger.
Offensive resilience goes a step further by treating disruption as a source of strategic opportunity. Operational resilience, ensuring the ability to deliver goods and services despite supply chain failures, natural disasters or geopolitical disruptions, has become a competitive differentiator. This requires diversified sourcing strategies, flexible logistics and redundancy in critical inputs.
Similarly, geopolitical resilience demands a systematic approach to political risk management. Institutions that actively assess their political risk appetite, invest in scenario planning and stress testing, and embed political risk analysis into strategic decisions are less likely to be caught off guard and more capable of responding effectively when crises materialize.
Ultimately, the defining feature of the current global environment is the persistence of volatility. Shocks are no longer episodic; they are structural. As the velocity and magnitude of disruption continue to rise, institutions that invest in comprehensive resilience- spanning business models, technology, finance, reputation, organization, operations and geopolitics- will be best positioned to safeguard their longevity. In an age of polycrisis, resilience is not simply about survival; it is about future-proofing institutional destiny.
How Kenyan Businesses Can Stay Resilient and Risk-Proof in 2026
