The US Dollar, as measured by the DXY Index, extended losses on Thursday to trade below the 101 mark, amid expectations that the Fed will deliver more interest cuts in the last quarter while the prices of gold and oil remain sensitive to escalations in the Middle East.
- The greenback weakened against a basket of currencies, falling about 0.08% today and 0.57% year-to-date with investors geared up for the latest PCE price index report, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
- The bold 50 basis points cut by the Fed last week impacted the dollar’s strength against major currencies making it less appealing to investors.
- Gold jolted higher to cross the US$2670 mark on Thursday, on the back of easing global interest rates with expectations of further cuts, a weaker dollar and the escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Oil prices ticked lower below the US$75.00 per barrel mark on Thursday, reversing earlier gains amid bearish fundamentals.
November Beckons
With the US general election underway, investors are gauging the prospects of the strength of the dollar as a key consideration in light of the main candidates’ policy proposals.
During Trump’s first tenure from 2016, the dollar strengthened steadily to the onset of the global pandemic in 2020. The republican candidate Trump core policies including tax breaks, immigration restrictions and tariffs are inflationary and expected to keep policy rates higher.
“Investors should also note that the dollar kept rising during late 2018 and 2019, despite the Fed cutting rates three times in 2019—a pace the central bank may replicate through the end of this year.”
Andrew Watrous, Morgan Stanley’s G10 Currency Strategist
Although Trump has supported a weaker dollar to boost exports, the currency is expected to strengthen if he takes victory.
“A second Trump administration may also result in significant fiscal expansion through more spending and debt—especially if the Republican Party also controls both houses of Congress. That outcome would likely boost the dollar by raising expectations for U.S. economic growth,” a Morgan Stanley report noted.
Gold Trades Higher to all-time highs
A series of rate cuts from the United States, China, Sweden and Czech coupled with lower rates by the European Central Bank has made Gold attractive to investors. The non-interest paying nature of gold has also weighed on the rally of the precious metal.
On Wednesday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who is a voting member, delivered a dovish speech with investors looking in for imminent rate cuts in the last quarter.
The risk factor arising from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict also makes gold a safe haven. As at 10:51 EAT, Gold was trading at US$2667 per troy ounce.
Oil Prices Edge Lower
The US, France, European Union (EU) and other Arab nations have called for a 21-day ceasefire across the Israel – Lebanon border following an escalation in the conflict after intense discussions at the United Nations.
Further, Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to give up its initial staunch oil price target of US$100 per barrel in preparation of raising supply, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
In Libya, delegates from the country’s divided west and east reached a consensus on the process of appointing a central bank governor – a step towards resolving the recent crisis over the control of Libya’s oil revenues. The crisis which arose in August disrupted exports with crude exports averaging 400,000 barrels per day in September, down from over 1 million barrels in August. However, this has weighed on oil prices furthering the downtrend on the partial recovery of oil flows to export terminals.
