Umeme Limited has issued a second profit warning in just over three months, confirming the electricity distributor expects to post a full-year loss for 2025 after its 20-year power distribution concession in Uganda expired in March.
- •The latest notice, released on 29 January 2026, builds on an earlier warning tied to interim results and shifts investor focus to a London arbitration with the Ugandan government over disputed post-concession compensation.
- •Umeme’s concession, which began in 2005, governed the distribution and sale of electricity to end users across Uganda.
- •With no continuing revenue-generating operations, Umeme’s financial position is shaped by wind-down costs, asset recoveries, and the eventual resolution of the arbitration.
In the statement, Umeme said an assessment of its performance for the year ended 31 December 2025 indicates the company will record a loss. This follows a net loss reported for the year ended 2024, marking a second consecutive loss-making year. The outcome reflects the cessation of operating revenue after the end of the first quarter of 2025, when the concession formally expired on 31 March.
The January disclosure extends a profit warning issued in mid-2025, which was based on interim results for the six months to June 2025. At the time, Umeme said the absence of revenue beyond the concession period meant interim performance pointed to another full-year loss. Listing rules require issuers to update the market once a full-year outcome becomes highly probable, even if earlier guidance has been provided.
Under the concession and associated privatization agreements, the government is required to compensate the company for unrecovered investments at the end of the contract. A dispute arose over the valuation of that buyout following the concession’s expiry.
Uganda’s Auditor General audited the buyout at US$118.4 million (KSh 15.3 billion), a figure the government has relied on. Umeme disputes the valuation, arguing it does not fully reflect its unrecovered capital expenditure and contractual entitlements. After a notice of dispute was issued and negotiations failed, the matter was referred to international commercial arbitration in London
The company has said the arbitration process is ongoing and that it continues to pursue additional compensation. Any settlement or award would be non-operating and one-off, and its timing and size remains uncertain.
