South Africa controls most of the Orange Basin, but it lags behind its northern neighbor thanks to bureaucratic and legal hurdles, writes NJ Ayuk.
The waters off South Africa's west coast represent a veritable treasure trove of economic opportunity for the country, considering that its majority share of the Orange Basin — the geological formation in which they sit — is estimated to hold approximately 30 billion barrels of potential oil resources.
Over the border to the north, in Namibia, where the underlying geology is similar, streamlined exploration processes have facilitated the development of over 20 successful exploration and appraisal wells since 2022. During this same period, South Africa has drilled exactly zero wells in their territory.
Why is there such a disparity across the two sides of a single border?
It is easy to assign blame to the many legal challenges brought forth by foreign-funded environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) against industry operators in South Africa. After all, they were successful at halting projects collectively valued at upwards of USD 1.6 billion and driving major players like TotalEnergies to walk away from promising ventures such as the Luiperd-Brulpadda gas-condensate project in 2024. However, the actions of these NGOs are predictable and within the scope of their legal prerogatives. It’s time for stakeholders to stop playing “the blame game.”
To finally unlock the wealth of its resources and prevent similar holdups in the future, the South African oil and gas industry and their government partners must focus instead on implementing clear legislation, expanding engagement with affected communities, and finding a workable balance between environmental responsibility and economic progress. Of course, this is easier said than done — and the challenge is far from insignificant.
Fortifying Frameworks
Since 2021, court cases brought by NGOs funded by western institutions have stalled or postponed a total of five upstream oil and gas projects across South Africa — three on the West Coast and two on the East Coast. Plaintiffs have successfully argued that oil companies, including TotalEnergies and Shell, failed to conduct adequate consultations with coastal communities and that the mandatory environmental impact assessments (EIAs) they produced were insufficient.
A recent court ruling also mandated that TotalEnergies include emissions estimates for potential future commercial operations in its exploration EIAs, adding layers of complexity and causing additional delays.
Emmanuelle Garinet, TotalEnergies’ vice president of Africa exploration, described this permitting process as “unacceptable,” noting that securing a permit can take three to four years. In a global competition for exploration capital, such delays practically end all hope of attracting further investment. Eco Atlantic’s CEO, Gil Holzman, echoed this sentiment, warning that, “if you’re unable to explore, develop, and produce, the money goes elsewhere.”
Repeated legal challenges like these go beyond reasonable efforts to protect the environment. I view them as acts of lawfare — the strategic use of legal systems and procedures to delay or block energy development indefinitely. Even worse, they stem from a permitting process that is inherently vulnerable to such tactics. While NGOs have the legal right to raise their concerns, the current system allows for approvals to be contested endlessly, even when thorough environmental impact assessments are in place. The result is a climate of uncertainty and an investment deterrent, as companies tied up in court face escalating costs and growing risks.
With streamlined processes creating investor-friendly waters and productive wells right over the maritime border in Namibia, South Africa risks losing major operator interest at proposed exploration sites on its side of the Orange Basin.
To counter this, the government must introduce legislation that sets clear, enforceable standards for EIAs and community consultations. A framework like this would ensure that environmental concerns are thoroughly addressed during the approval process and limit the number of appeals that could take advantage of any legal loopholes.
As Garinet noted, legal challenges are a part of democracy, but there must be safeguards against the “abuse of law” by groups with agendas that do not align with the broader public interest.
Recent developments in onshore shale gas exploration offer South Africa a blueprint for a better direction. On October 16, 2025, Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe announced that a long-standing moratorium on shale gas exploration, imposed in 2011 amid objections from environmental activists to hydraulic fracking in the ecologically sensitive Karoo region, will be lifted as soon as new regulations are published later this month. These regulations, finalized by the minister, aim to address environmental and safety concerns, including water challenges in the semi-arid Karoo, providing a controlled framework that could influence similar reforms to the governance of offshore projects.
The government must introduce legislation that sets clear, enforceable standards for EIAs and community consultations
Empowering Local Voices
Community engagement is the other critical piece of this puzzle. Historically, consultations related to oil and gas projects were superficial at best, lacking meaningful interaction with the populations closest to or most affected by the project at hand. This disregard fueled distrust, empowering the NGOs to challenge projects in court.
Since roughly 2020, encouraged by the global support for renewables, these groups have become adept at leveraging regulations to demand more thorough consultations and more comprehensive EIAs. While this has improved operator accountability, it has also impeded exploration.
To break this cycle, South Africa must adopt a proactive approach to community engagement. Petroleum Agency SA’s community awareness campaigns, which educate locals about oil and gas activities, offer a strong starting point. Expanding these initiatives to involve communities early in the EIA process would address environmental impact concerns while highlighting a project’s economic benefits to come.
An example of this kind of effort playing out can be found in Suriname, where TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu deepwater project is set to create 6,000 local jobs and add USD 1 billion to the economy. In the run-up to this project, TotalEnergies consulted and sought feedback from stakeholders in both the coastal districts and indigenous communities, establishing quarterly meetings and a grievance mechanism.
In South Africa, similar projects could transform regions like Mossel Bay by boosting employment and government revenues while promoting sustainable development. The new shale gas regulations offer another model as they respond to previous objections and legal challenges brought by environmental campaigners, demonstrating how inclusive frameworks can mitigate opposition and enable progress.
Government advocacy is critical to this strategy. While Minister Mantashe has long championed oil and gas, progress in addressing permitting delays had been sluggish until the October announcement. His recent commitment to lifting the shale gas moratorium reflects the renewed push to shift from emissions-heavy coal-fired plants, which supply the bulk of South Africa’s electricity, toward cleaner gas alternatives. As the minister himself acknowledged, “the economy needs a growth trigger, and oil and gas are those triggers.”
Furthermore, Tseliso Maqubela, deputy director general at the Department of Minerals and Petroleum Resources, admitted at African Energy Week 2025 that the government has been “found wanting on technical grounds” in consultation processes. A government initiative to correct this, by standardizing the protocols for EIAs and consultations, could reduce the frequency of NGO-led legal challenges.
Godfrey Moagi’s leadership of the recently established South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC), could be another positive. Moagi’s engagement within the industry and his outreach to both government ministries and the public could bridge the gaps between those entities. SANPC collaboration could also help to ensure that EIAs meet legal standards and community expectations while cutting down on litigation.
Following it Through
Legislative reform, community engagement, and government advocacy are not standalone solutions, however. To achieve success, they must work together like components of the proverbial well-oiled machine.
New legislation should mandate transparent consultation processes with defined time limits. Communities should be both heard and informed, but the power of an NGO acting on their behalf to so easily derail a project should also be checked.
Conversely, the government must also counter the perception that foreign-funded NGOs are deliberately blocking development. While their actions merit scrutiny, the focus should be on building a system that withstands legal challenges rather than vilifying advocacy groups acting within the bounds of the law.
By learning from Namibia’s and Suriname's successes — where clear regulations and proactive engagement have attracted billions in investment — South Africa can create an equally attractive upstream environment. The impending lift of the shale gas moratorium demonstrates this potential, showing how targeted regulations can resolve longstanding delays and unlock the resources needed to grow the economy.
The stakes are high. If South Africa fails to act, it risks further abandonment by oil majors, which would leave its vast resources untapped. The contrast is stark when compared to Guyana, where ExxonMobil’s offshore production has transformed the economy, or to Namibia, where exploration is booming.
South Africa controls most of the Orange Basin, but it lags behind its northern neighbor thanks to bureaucratic and legal hurdles. The government must seize this moment to pass legislation that sets firm rules, expands community engagement, and builds trust with both investors and the local population. Only once all these pieces are in place can South Africa emulate the economic transformations seen elsewhere.
The time for half-measures and finger-pointing is over. Policymakers should act decisively to secure South Africa’s energy future.
NJ Ayuk is the Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.