Economies across the world are likely to be hit hard further if adequate measures are not put in place to tame increasing levels of violence emanating from either internal or external factors, a new report warns.
The Global Peace Index 2023 (GPI 2023) reveals sharp deterioration in peace last year with Sub-Saharan Africa witnessing an increase in levels of terrorism. Over 80,000 people have died in the Russia-Ukraine war which has also disrupted global food supply chain and hypothetical Chinese blockade of Taiwan likely to disrupt complex electronics supply.
The aftermath of Libya conflict, end of war in Syria, and ethnic tensions coupled with the effects of climate change is linked to an increase in the number of terrorism activities in the Sub-Saharan Africa putting the economies of region in danger.
Out of 163 countries sampled in the GPI 2023 survey, Kenya ranked as 117th most peaceful in the world, and 26th most peaceful in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“The need for a systematic response to building peace is urgent. Conflict is intensifying in several regions, with conflict related deaths rising rapidly,” says Thomas Morgan, associate director of research at the Institute of Economics and Peace.
“The proliferation of cheaper advanced military technologies, increasing geopolitical competition, and an underlying current of political instability in many countries means that continuing deterioration of global peacefulness seems likely,” he said.
The year 2022 witnessed the highest number of conflict deaths after the Rwandan Genocide with over a quarter of a million people killed last year. Over 100, 000 people were killed in Ethiopia last year, over 82,000 people killed in Ukraine and a significant number also perished in Mali from conflict.
Economic Impact
The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2022 was $17.5 trillion in purchasing power parity terms. The figure is equivalent to 12.9 per cent of the world’s GDP or $2200 per person, increasing by 6.6 per cent from the previous year.
This was mainly driven by an increase in the total economic impact of global military expenditure, which rose by 16.8 per cent, although more countries reduced their military expenditure as a per centage of GDP than increased it. Much of the increase resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and associated military spending from countries directly and indirectly involved in the conflict.
For the ten countries most affected by violence, the average economic impact was equivalent to 34 per cent of GDP, compared to 2.9 per cent in the ten countries least affected by violence. Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Central African Republic incurred the largest proportional economic cost of violence in 2021, equivalent to 63, 47, and 40 per cent of GDP respectively.
“Over the last 15 years the world has become less peaceful, with the average country score deteriorating by five per cent,” notes the report. “Of the 163 countries in the GPI, 95 recorded deteriorations, while 66 recorded improvements and two recorded no change in score.”
The largest improvement in peacefulness occurred in Libya for the second successive year, followed Burundi, Oman, Cote d’Ivoire, and Afghanistan.
Europe is the most peaceful region in the world and is home to seven of the ten most peaceful countries. The other three most peaceful countries are in the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained the world’s least peaceful region.
According to the report, the number of non-state groups using drones doubled between 2018 and 2022 and the total number of drone strikes nearly tripled over the same period.
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