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    South Sudan is Unravelling, Again

    Morris
    By Morris Kiruga
    - March 10, 2025
    - March 10, 2025
    African Wall StreetGeopolitics
    South Sudan is Unravelling, Again

    South Sudan’s neighbours, and regional and international bodies have urged the country’s leaders to resolve an escalating conflict between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar over clashes in several parts of the country.

    • •Last week, South Sudan’s security forces arrested several high ranking government officials including the petroleum and peace building ministers, and military officials, and reportedly surrounded Machar’s home in the capital Juba.
    • •A United Nations (UN) helicopter on a rescue mission was shot down, leading to the deaths of several military officials, including a general, in what President Kiir termed an “assassination.”
    • •The ongoing conflict begun in February for unclear reasons, although human rights organisations have linked it to disarmament efforts in Upper Nile, Western Bahr el-Ghazal, and Western Equatoria states.

    In a statement on Saturday, outgoing African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki called “…for an immediate end to the hostilities, adherence to the ceasefire arrangements, and for the parties to urgently engage in national dialogue.”

    Since February, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) has been battling a loosely organised group called the White Army in Nasir County, Upper Nile State. The government has said that the White Army is linked to Machar’s party, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO). This led to the crackdown in Juba during the week, including the arrest of deputy chief of the SSPDF Gabriel Duop Lam.

    South Sudan’s military spokesperson Major General Lul Ruai Koang urged former opposition officers integrated into the military to return to work, Radio Tamazuj reported. Many have gone into hiding, fearing that they would be caught up in the crackdowns, worsening tensions in an already fraught situation.

    The 2018 peace deal between President Kiir and VP Machar, which saw Machar reinstated as First Vice President, is now at stake with the latter virtually under house arrest. According to the BBC, all senior military officials allied to Machar were also placed under house arrest. President Kiir also recalled Juba’s ambassador to Kenya, but did not provide a reason for the move.

    Many of the issues agreed on in 2018 have not been implemented, such as the full integration of the armies, making a new constitution, and organising a census and elections.

    The Sudan Links

    Regional analysts suspect that the sudden eruption in violence may have links to the conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Army (SA) and the RSF. The Sudan conflict has triggered an economic crisis in South Sudan by disrupting oil flow, which has also significantly weakened President Kiir’s ability to keep the peace.

    Over the course of the conflict, Juba has had to work a delicate balance by working with both sides, primarily to get its oil to Port Sudan and to maintain the pipeline infrastructure. On Sunday, President Kiir and Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chairman, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan spoke on bilateral issues, including the security issues in both countries.

    Khartoum has accused Juba of not doing enough to stop the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from recruiting in South Sudan, and for hosting a UAE-built hospital within its boundaries. Juba, on the other hand, has linked the White Army to SPLM-IO and the Sudanese Army.

    South Sudan is due to hold its first elections in December 2026, a decade and a half after it became an independent country.

    The Kenyan Wall Street

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