South Africa and China have signed a new framework agreement aimed at guiding future trade and investment cooperation.
- •While the agreement itself does not immediately change market access conditions, it establishes parameters for subsequent negotiations that could have tangible commercial implications.
- •At the centre of the framework is a proposed Early Harvest Agreement, expected to be negotiated later this year, which would focus on preferential trade measures.
- •South Africa is a major destination for Chinese investment on the continent, particularly in infrastructure, mining, and manufacturing.
According to officials, discussions are likely to prioritize expanded access for South African exports into the Chinese market, potentially through reduced or eliminated tariffs on selected goods. If concluded, such an agreement could lower entry barriers for South African producers, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, though its scope and enforceability will depend on the final negotiated terms.
The framework identifies several broad areas of cooperation, including trade, investment, energy, and multilateral engagement. China already ranks among South Africa’s most significant trading partners, and agricultural exports such as citrus products have featured prominently in recent years. Pretoria is also seeking to deepen its trade connections both within and outside the BRICS bloc, especially as its relations with the United States and Israel deteriorate.
The South African government has also indicated an interest in increasing exports of higher value manufactured goods, a long-standing policy objective aimed at reducing reliance on commodity-based trade. Whether improved market access alone will be sufficient to shift export composition remains uncertain, given competitiveness constraints, logistics costs, and non-tariff barriers.
Investment is another focal point of the framework. The government has positioned the agreement as a means of sustaining and potentially expanding these flows, while also signalling the need to balance openness with safeguards for domestic industrial capacity. This reflects a broader tension in South Africa’s economic policy: attracting foreign capital while protecting strategic sectors and supporting local value chains.
Beyond bilateral trade and investment, the framework emphasizes alignment with global trade rules, notably those of the World Trade Organization. This suggests an attempt to anchor deeper cooperation within existing multilateral norms, even as global trade increasingly fragments into regional and bilateral arrangements.
Overall, the agreement signals continuity rather than a sharp shift in South-Africa-China economic relations. It reinforces an existing partnership and creates space for incremental progress, but it stops short of delivering immediate outcomes. The key test will be whether subsequent negotiations produce concrete, balanced agreements that meaningfully improve access for South African firms while managing the risks associated with deeper economic integration.
