Mogadishu has reiterated its call for Ethiopia to not participate in the next phase of peacekeeping in Somalia, as the brewing conflict between the two neighbours escalates.
- •The current peacekeeping force, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is staffed by troops from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, and Ethiopia.
- •Its mandate, which begun in April 2022 as a successor to the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), will end in December 2024.
- •The feud between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, who have historically not seen eye to eye, has worsened after Ethiopia signed a deal with the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland for access to the sea.
“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including an illegal agreement with Somalia’s northern region, violate our sovereignty and erode the trust essential for peacekeeping,” Somalia’s ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement on Wednesday.
Mogadishu also questioned Ethiopia’s efficacy in the peacekeeping missions, claiming that past deployments “have led to increased Al-Shabaab activity and little development.”
“Somalia, as a sovereign state, holds the authority to decide which Troop Partner Nations (TNPs) will contribute to the African Union Stabilisation Ministry in Somalia (AUSSOM),” the ministry added.
Why it Matters
Somalia’s insistence on Ethiopia’s exclusion from the future peacekeeping mission is just one aspect of the geopolitics at play as ATMIS’ mandate nears its end. Mogadishu has recently been working with Egypt and Eritrea to form an ‘axis’ against Ethiopia. Each is driven by different motivations: for Egypt, the existential threat of the GERD dam on the Nile; for Eritrea, a return to the historical feud between Asmara and Addis Ababa; and for Somalia, multiple aspects including the Somaliland issue.
While the situation is still salvagable, the timing of the recent escalations with upcoming elections in Somalia and Egypt mean that political interests may trump over regional peace. Egypt has been arming Mogadishu, and is in play to replace Ethiopia in AUSSOM. This would place it right next door to Ethiopia, but it would also have ramifications for security in both the Horn and the Middle East.
Djibouti, which is currently Ethiopia’s route to the sea, has tried to deescalate the tensions by offering Addis Ababa exclusive access to the Tajdourah Port. But the multiple overlapping interests both within and outside the region have made it difficult to find a fast and peaceful solution.
