Nairobi based Standard Investment Bank (SIB) Research has reaffirmed a ‘BUY’ recommendation on TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya Plc, setting a fair value estimate of KSh 56.30 per share, a 60.4% upside from its KSh 35.10 market price as of October 16, 2025.
- •The valuation is based on a blended model combining a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) value of KSh 77.43, a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) value of KSh 39.49, and regional market multiples across Africa and the Middle East.
- •SIB forecasts FY2025 net earnings of KSh 1.8 billion, up 20% year-on-year from KSh 1.5 billion, supported by easing finance costs and a modest revenue increase of 2.3% to KSh 116.8 billion.
- •The brokerage also expects the company to maintain its dividend at KSh 1.92 per share, representing a 67.7% payout ratio. TotalEnergies’ steady cash generation and disciplined capital structure underpin its strong dividend outlook despite volatility in global oil prices.
The research notes that local sales will rise to 95.8% of total revenue, up from 94.3% in FY2024, reflecting growth in the domestic retail and aviation segments.
- •Export and bulk sales are projected to fall by 24.2% due to lower regional volumes.
- •Network sales are forecast to reach KSh 73.5 billion, general trade KSh 33.8 billion, and aviation KSh 4.5 billion.
TotalEnergies currently operates about 252 service stations and plans to expand to 261 sites by 2026, with each station generating an average of KSh 281.7 million in annual revenue.
SIB also highlights TotalEnergies’ ongoing investments in clean energy, noting that 152 stations have been solarized and 24 battery-swap units installed in partnership with local e-mobility firms such as Roam, Ampersand, and Arc Ride. The company has also introduced biodiesel and EV charging facilities, positioning itself for Kenya’s low-carbon transition. These initiatives, the report says, enhance the company’s long-term competitiveness and align with global ESG benchmarks.
In Kenya’s downstream petroleum market, TotalEnergies is the third-largest player behind Vivo Energy and Rubis. As of June 2025, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority counted 146 licensed oil-marketing companies, with the top 10 controlling about 72% of market share. Diesel accounts for roughly 43% of national fuel consumption, followed by gasoline at 29%.
SIB concludes that TotalEnergies Kenya remains undervalued relative to regional peers, supported by strong cash flows, a conservative balance sheet, and steady retail expansion. The firm expects the stock’s upside potential to attract renewed investor interest as market confidence returns to energy counters on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
