The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S Navy has escalated fears of retaliation by Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis across a narrow strait in the Red Sea called the Bab al-Mandeb (translation: Gate of Tears), another important shipping route that Saudi Arabia is using as an alternative for oil exports.
- •Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of crude oil, is now pressuring the U.S to abandon its blockade to dissuade the Houthis from choking the strait and crippling Riyadh’s economy, according to a report by Wall Street Journal.
- •The U.S begun its counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with the Iranian delegation in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to yield an amicable agreement.
- •According to regional analysts, if the Houthi rebels wanted to shut down the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which is tucked between Yemen and Djibouti, they would do it easily as they strategically control the Yemeni coastline.
Iran insists that its hold over the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, a factor that has derailed millions of barrels in oil exports from getting to their destinations. Saudi Arabia has lifted its oil production to seven million barrels a day after it was able to pipe the crude oil across the desert to the Red Sea, which has made the route a crucial logistical lifeline.
During the war between Israel and Hamas, the Houthis targeted commercial and naval ships belonging to Israel, the U.S, and the U.K along the Red Sea as a protest against the Palestinian onslaught in Gaza. The rebels are part of the Iranian axis of influence in the middle east, alongside Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, groups which Israel has sought to destroy over the decades.
The closure of the Red Sea strait could negatively affect shipping and trade across the Suez Canal, an important route that connects Asia, Africa, and Europe. During the war in Gaza, the Houthis fired missiles and drones at ships near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, hindering shipping and cutting off millions of barrels of oil in transit by half. Various Kenyan agricultural exports like tea and avocados also ply the route and deliveries were disrupted during the period. Ethiopia's imports and exports also depends on the Djibouti port which is situated just at the tip of the narrow strait.
With both crucial straits facing blockades, the oil shortage crisis could further hike prices and affect economies dependent on massive imports. Kenya has a G-to-G petroleum supply agreement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and supply disruptions have already led to fuel shortages and a price explosion at the pump. Although Riyadh has guarantees from the Houthis that no attacks will occur along the route, there is no knowing if they will hold if the Iranians decide to open that pressure valve.
On one hand, Saudi Arabia and other gulf states don’t want the Iranians to toll the strait of Hormuz as part of any peace agreement with the U.S. However, the continuation of the war could spill into other shipping routes and disrupt gulf economies.
