Safaricom has delivered its strongest financial performance in 25 years of operation in FY26, posting attributable profit of KSh 95.61 Bn - the highest by any corporate in East and Central Africa and group EBITDA of KSh 220.26 Bn.
- • The record-breaking performance was driven by Kenya's operating engine accelerating and Ethiopia's startup losses narrowing at a pace that surprised even the most optimistic analysts.
- •Group service revenue crossed KSh 400 Bn for the first time, rising 11.5% year-on-year to KSh 414.14 Bn, driven by double-digit growth in Kenya and a 58.3% surge in Ethiopia.
- •Against , Safaricom beat a pre-earnings Kenyan Wall Street analyst consensus on every profitability metric: Earnings Per Share (EPS) of KSh 2.39, for example, exceeded the consensus mean of KSh 2.14 and matched the most bullish individual estimate in the survey, that of independent analyst Gichuki Kahome.
Safaricom's total revenue reached KSh 427.56 Bn, up 10.0% year-on-year. EBITDA expanded 27.9% to KSh 220.26 Bn, with the margin recovering 720 basis points to 51.5%, reversing the compression accumulated during Ethiopia's build-out years in a single financial year.
EBIT hit a new all-time high of KSh 146.32 Bn, up 40.6%, while basic EPS of KSh 2.39 marked the highest earnings per share in the company's history.
Kenya: M-Pesa and Data Drive a Clean Sweep
Kenya's service revenue crossed the KSh 400 Bn threshold for the first time at KSh 400.8 Bn, up 10.0% year-on-year. M-Pesa contributed KSh 182.7 Bn, growing 13.4% and accounting for 45.6% of Kenya service revenue, supported by a 71.0% expansion in the merchant base to 3.1 million. Transaction volumes rose 25.1% to 46.41 Bn, with micro-transactions through Kadogo accounting for 36.8% of total M-Pesa volumes at 17.1 Bn.
"There is no intended split between Safaricom Telco and M-Pesa," Group CEO Dr. Peter Ndegwa said, addressing investor speculation about a potential corporate restructuring.
Mobile data revenue of KSh 83.35 Bn overtook voice as the largest connectivity contributor for the first time, accounting for 42.1% against voice at 41.3%. Fixed services and IoT revenue grew 12.2% to KSh 20.2 Bn, with FTTH customers rising 35.0% to 407k.
The one outlier was handset and connection revenue, which collapsed 47.4% to KSh 6.85 Bn, the lowest recorded since at least FY14, a trend management will need to address given its contradiction with rising device adoption metrics.
| Safaricom Kenya / FY26 Metrics Table | FY26 | FY25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service Revenue | 400.80 Bn | 364.30 Bn | ▲ +10.0% |
| M-Pesa Revenue | 182.70 Bn | 161.10 Bn | ▲ +13.4% |
| Connectivity Revenue | 197.90 Bn | 185.10 Bn | ▲ +6.9% |
| Mobile Data Revenue | 83.35 Bn | 72.90 Bn | ▲ +14.4% |
| Fixed Services & IoT Revenue | 20.20 Bn | 18.00 Bn | ▲ +12.2% |
| EBITDA | 233.90 Bn | 205.80 Bn | ▲ +13.7% |
| EBIT | 182.30 Bn | 158.10 Bn | ▲ +15.3% |
| Net Income | 119.10 Bn | 95.50 Bn | ▲ +24.7% |
| Operating FCF | 173.60 Bn | 148.80 Bn | ▲ +16.7% |
| M-Pesa Transaction Value | 41.68 Trn | 38.28 Trn | ▲ +8.9% |
| M-Pesa Transaction Volume | 46.41 Bn | 37.10 Bn | ▲ +25.1% |
| Merchant Base | 3.10 Bn | 1.81 Bn | ▲ +71.0% |
| FTTH Customers | 407.08k | 301.50k | ▲ +35.0% |
| 1-Month Active Data Customers | 34.13 Mn | 30.70 Mn | ▲ +11.2% |
| Handset & Connection Revenue | 6.85 Bn | 13.02 Bn | ▼ -47.4% |
Ethiopia: H2 Near Breakeven Changes the Narrative
Ethiopia's full-year EBITDA loss narrowed sharply by 64.8% to KSh 15.1 Bn, but the H1 versus H2 trajectory is the more telling story. H2 EBITDA loss was only KSh 2.7 Bn against KSh 12.4 Bn in H1, placing Ethiopia within striking distance of the FY27 EBITDA breakeven that management has long guided for.
Service revenue grew 58.3% to KSh 14.08 Bn, M-Pesa adoption surged 119.4% to 5.2 million active customers, representing 49% of the GSM base, and 4G coverage reached 59.2% of the population.
| Safaricom Ethiopia / FY26 Metrics Table | FY26 | FY25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service Revenue | 14.08 Bn | 8.90 Bn | ▲ +58.3% |
| Mobile Data Revenue | 9.56 Bn | 6.71 Bn | ▲ +42.5% |
| Voice Revenue | 3.01 Bn | 1.20 Bn | ▲ +150.8% |
| Messaging Revenue | 169.40 Mn | 92.90 Mn | ▲ +82.3% |
| EBITDA | (15.10 Bn) | (43.00 Bn) | ▲ Improved +64.8% |
| EBIT | (30.10 Bn) | (61.10 Bn) | ▲ Improved +50.7% |
| Net Income | (21.20 Bn) | (36.00 Bn) | ▲ Improved +41.2% |
| Operating FCF | (44.20 Bn) | (56.10 Bn) | ▲ Improved +21.3% |
| H1 EBITDA | (12.40 Bn) | ||
| H2 EBITDA | (2.70 Bn) | ||
| 90-Day Active Customers | 13.63 Mn | 8.84 Mn | ▲ +54.2% |
| M-Pesa 90-Day Active | 5.20 Mn | 2.37 Mn | ▲ +119.4% |
| Network Sites | 3,504 | 3,141 | ▲ +11.5% |
| Population Coverage | 59.2% | 50.0% | ▲ +920bps |
Forecast Beat Across the Board
A Kenyan Wall Street survey of analysts and brokerages, supplemented with S&P Global Market Intelligence institutional consensus data, had pointed to attributable net income of between KSh 82.0 Bn and KSh 95.8 Bn, against KSh69.8 Bn reported in FY25.
Every analyst in the survey had, rightly as it turned out, expected Safaricom to raise its dividend for the first time since FY22.
| Metric | FY26 Actual | Forecast Range | Consensus | vs Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 427.56 Bn | 415.0–440.0 Bn | 423.9 Bn | ▲ Beat +3.66 Bn |
| Service Revenue | 414.14 Bn | 407.6–408.0 Bn | 407.8 Bn | ▲ Beat +6.34 Bn |
| EBITDA | 220.26 Bn | 189.7–218.5 Bn | 208.1 Bn | ▲ Beat +12.16 Bn |
| EBIT | 146.32 Bn | 144.6–148.3 Bn | 146.8 Bn | ▼ Miss -0.48 Bn |
| Net Income Attr. | 95.61 Bn | 82.0–95.8 Bn | 86.1 Bn | ▲ Beat +9.51 Bn |
| EPS | 2.39 | 1.90–2.39 | 2.14 | ▲ Beat +0.25 |
| DPS | 2.00 | 1.50–1.84 | 1.69 | ▲ Beat +0.31 |
Investors delivered an immediate verdict. Safaricom shares surged 8.15% to KSh 32.50 in the opening minutes of trade, lifting the broader NSE All Share Index 3.15%, adding approximately KSh 100 Bn in market value in under 30 minutes, a figure almost identical to the record profit it had just reported.
At KSh 32.50, Safaricom trades near its 52-week high of KSh 34.20, with a one-year return of 78.08%.
