Safaricom FY26 Preview: Analysts See Dividend Rise, Earnings Surge

Safaricom is set to report its full-year results for the year ended 31 March 2026 this week, with analysts projecting the telco's strongest earnings performance in at least five years as Ethiopia losses narrow and Kenya's operating momentum compounds.

• •A Kenyan Wall Street survey of analysts and brokerages, supplemented with S&P Global Market Intelligence institutional consensus data, points to attributable net income of between KSh 82.0 Bn and KSh 95.8 Bn, against KSh69.8 Bn reported in FY25.
• •The consensus mean sits at KSh 86.1 Bn, implying growth of approximately 23% year-on-year.
• •Every analyst in the survey expects Safaricom to raise its dividend for the first time since FY22.

Revenue: Kenya steady, Ethiopia the swing factor

Total revenue consensus of 423.9 Bn implies 9% growth from FY25's KSh 388.7 Bn, a deceleration from the 11.2% posted last year but still ahead of inflation. The range is wide at KSh 415.0–440.0 Bn, and the divergence traces almost entirely to Ethiopia.

Standard Investment Bank, the most bullish on revenue at KSh 440.0 Bn, models a materially faster Ethiopia ramp than Sterling IB at KSh 417.6 Bn. Kenya revenue assumptions across analysts are broadly aligned, suggesting the disagreement is not about the core business.

M-Pesa revenue consensus of KSh 190.4 Bn would represent 18.2% growth from KSh 161.1 Bn in FY25, extending a streak of double-digit expansion that has run uninterrupted since FY20. M-Pesa now accounts for over 41% of group revenue, and analysts expect that share to inch higher.

Margins: the central debate

EBITDA margin is where analyst views diverge most sharply. The range of 45.4% to 51.1% spans nearly 600 basis points. S&P Global's institutional consensus sits at the top at 51.1%, which would effectively reverse the entire margin compression of the Ethiopia build-out years in a single financial year.

That is an aggressive assumption. Safaricom management has guided for Ethiopia EBITDA breakeven only in FY27, making a full group margin recovery to pre-Ethiopia levels in FY26 difficult to reconcile with public guidance. The more defensible central case is the 49.2% consensus mean, implying a 290bps recovery.

EBIT consensus of KSh 146.8 Bn would be a new all-time high, surpassing the FY22 peak of KSh 109.1 Bn by 34%, reflecting both the revenue growth and D&A stabilization as the Ethiopia capex cycle matures.

Dividend: three-year freeze set to break

The range of KSh 1.50–1.84 per share compares to the flat KSh 1.20 paid in each of the last three years. Free cash flow recovered to KSh 63.1 Bn in FY25 after the distressed KSh 10.3 Bn in FY24, giving the board room to act. A payout in line with the consensus mean of KSh 1.69 would represent a 41% increase, restoring the payout ratio toward its historical range of 75–80%.

EPS consensus of KSh 2.14 would mark the highest earnings per share since at least FY21, closing out a cycle that saw the metric stall between KSh 1.55 and KSh 1.74 for four consecutive years.

Safaricom's results are expected during the week on Thursday 7th May 2026.

Forecasts:

Gichuki Kahome (Independent), Wesley Manambo & Eric Musau (SIB Research), Levin Ngwiri & Maryanne Thiong'o (Sterling IB), Jack Kimanzi (Independent).

Institutional consensus: S&P Global Market Intelligence / MarketScreener (as at 2 May 2026).