President William Ruto will visit the United States on a State Visit in May during what is likely to be one of the most turbulent US elections in memory. Barring some miracle, or catastrophe, the US presidential election will be a showdown between the same two contenders—albeit older and less energetic—as in 2020.
The US presidential election in November is the most significant geopolitical risk event of 2024.
Its outcome could result in a dramatic change in US foreign and domestic policy. These policy changes, assuming former president Donald Trump wins again, would almost certainly change the immediate fortunes of actors across the world including flashpoints like Russia-Ukraine War, securitization of the Red Sea corridor, and the Taiwan Straight or the European Union policy, NATO, and, closer to home, US commitments across Africa.
Maybe those changes are good. Maybe those changes are bad. But when Ruto steps off the plane in Washington, DC he will be in the centre of a monumental national moment in America. This political context will need to shape his and the Ministry of Foreign Affair’s long-term planning if, for no other reason, the approximately 50/50 chance that most key US officials they meet will be unemployed this year.
As I have said many times before in other forums: there is no country in Africa which has had as good of a relationship with the US for as long as Kenya. The ties are so special that America’s first black president is the son of a Kenyan. Those realities are the momentum which will keep these two nations together as partners.
That reality is also the currency that Ruto needs to leverage during his DC visit. The US needs a partner like Kenya on the continent and Kenya can latch some of its boundless capabilities to this relationship to unlock the next stage of its economic development.
As significant as pageantry and power aesthetics are to State Visits, Ruto and his team must leverage these presidential moments into deepening diplomatic and trade ties with US officials two and three levels below the White House. To achieve this, Ruto’s delegation and entourage must have access to senior career policymakers most likely to survive a regime transition and be well-briefed on how to advance Kenya’s strategic national priorities during this red-carpet moment.
State Visits create an enormous amount of buzz—especially in election years. Often there are plenty of unofficial side events that carry on the State Visit themes which Kenya must also leverage to its advantage to explore or deepen commercial ties. These unofficial side events have been abused by other African governments who fill planes with hangers-on, dilettantes, distant relatives, or other leeches who throng shopping malls rather than advance national interests.
Ruto and his entourage would be wise to use of unofficial events to signal the aptitude of Kenyan diplomacy, talent, and business acumen.
So many governments miss or squander opportunities to leverage side events organized by think tanks, big banks, NGOs, diaspora communities, co-working spaces, business councils, trade boards, universities, or the plethora of other interest groups that operate in the US. All these forums present opportunities for the Ruto government to officially or unofficially advance its vision for Kenya, the African continent, and their role in the world. And every one of these opportunities can be expected to exist beyond the life of the Biden administration.
These unofficial side events should also include finding ways to engage with former or future Trump officials. Obviously due to US laws on foreign influence, as well as not looking bad in front of the Democratic administration, this would need to be handled with care.
But the outcome is simple: make sure there are friendly lines of communication open in case Trump wins in November. Afterall, it was under the Trump administration that the Kenya Free Trade Agreement, which was expected to be the largest free trade deal with an African country, almost came into life. This initiative ended when Trump lost the 2020 election.
American political uncertainty presents the opportunity for Ruto’s administration to focus relationship-building in US institutions and across civic forums to achieve long term priorities. The well-choreographed agreements, commitments, and meetings emanating from the White House are also win-themes for Ruto upon his return home, but Kenya must take a more multi-dimensional view of this trip beyond the planned giveaways.
Declan Galvin is a geopolitical risk analyst based in Nairobi, Kenya. He writes on corporate governance, business ethics, consumer advocacy issues, and geopolitical risk. He can be followed on LinkedIn.
