Kenya’s external trade is becoming more regionally concentrated on the export side while growing increasingly dependent on Asia and Europe for imports, according to new trade data from the third quarter of 2025.
- •Exports to African markets rose strongly during the quarter, accounting for nearly half of Kenya’s foreign sales, even as imports from Asia surged to almost 70% of total import expenditure.
- •The mismatch between selling mainly agricultural goods like tea and horticultural produce to nearby markets while buying capital- and industrial-intensive goods from farther afield, widened Kenya’s trade deficit and strained foreign-exchange buffers.
- •According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the sales of Kenyan exports rose by 2.5% due to increased shipments to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Egypt and Rwanda.
Exports to Europe posted modest growth of 5.2% to KSh 60.8 billion while exports to Asia fell more than 14%, dragged down by weaker demand from the United Arab Emirates, India and Pakistan. The contraction of coffee sales to the USA saw total exports to the Americas drop to KSh 24.4 billion during the quarter under review.
On the flip side, Asia remained Kenya’s dominant source of goods, with its share of total imports rising to 68.6%, driven by higher purchases from China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Malaysia. Beijing stood dominant with KSh 184.3 billion in imported goods, up from KSh 169.8 billion during the corresponding quarter. Meanwhile, imports from South Korea rose from KSh 5.5 billion in 2024 to KSh 16.7 billion in Q3 2025.
Capital equipment, industrial machinery, iron and steel, and motor vehicles accounted for much of the increase in imports. The resulting imbalance pushed Kenya’s trade deficit to KSh 135.3 billion in the third quarter, more than triple the KSh 43.5 billion recorded in the same period in 2024.
The services sector, which has long been a stabilizing force for Kenya’s external accounts, provided less relief as its surplus fell to KSh 57.2 billion from KSh 100.6 billion a year earlier, reflecting weaker inflows from travel, transport and government-related services.
The pressure was absorbed through the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, recording a KSh 63.7 billion drawdown in reserve assets during the quarter, reversing the accumulation seen a year earlier.
