The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) lost KSh 64.34Billion in market capitalization on Thursday, extending a four-day rout that has now erased just over KSh 215.58 Billion in investor wealth and ranks as the third worst week on record since 2008.
- •The NSE All share Index fell 1.94% to 196.42, its lowest close since early February, with losers overwhelming gainers 44 to 10.
- •The Banking Index bore the worst of Thursday's damage, plunging 3.91% to 220.96, its steepest decline since launching in October 2025.
- •The pressure on the NSE is being amplified by a global oil shock that threatens Kenya's inflation outlook and monetary policy trajectory.
Six of eleven listed banks fell more than 4%: ABSA dropped 6.07% to KSh 27.85, KCB shed 5.67% to KSh 66.50 on a massive 8.95 million shares worth an estimated KSh 595M, Co-operative Bank lost 5.57% to KSh 27.15, Equity fell 5.28% to KSh 67.25, I&M declined 5.06%, and HF Group dropped 4.71%.
Only Standard Chartered, Stanbic, and BK Group finished in positive territory. The scale of KCB's turnover points to large-scale institutional distribution rather than retail panic.
The NSE 10 Share Index fell 4.27%, the worst session in its history since launching in September 2023. The NSE 25 dropped 3.35%, the steepest since May 2023. The NSE 20, the oldest index on the NSE, lost 2.64%. Every major index has fallen for four consecutive sessions, with the NSE 10 down 9.52% and the Banking Index down 8.43% for the week.Geopolitical Shocks
- •Brent crude surged back above $106 per barrel on Thursday after Iran rejected direct peace talks with the United States, extinguishing brief optimism that had pulled oil below $100 on Wednesday.
- •The Strait of Hormuz disruption, now in its fourth week, has pushed crude 47% above pre-war levels. Iraq's force majeure declaration on all foreign-operated oilfields and drone strikes on Kuwaiti refineries have compounded supply fears.
- •Goldman Sachs described the current pricing as a geopolitical risk premium over fundamentals, though the bank's base case assumes Hormuz traffic normalises in April, and the futures curve supports that view: December Brent is priced at $79.70, a 17% discount to spot, suggesting the market treats the current spike as transitory rather than structural.
For Kenya, the transmission is direct and on a known timeline. The country imports all its refined petroleum, and while EPRA held pump prices unchanged for the March to April cycle, the regulator noted that current pricing was based on February-priced cargoes that predate the war. The cost of Murban crude imported by Kenya jumped 21% in a single week in early March, from KSh 9,861 to KSh 11,915 per barrel.
The April 15 EPRA review will be the first to fully capture war-era pricing, and a significant fuel price increase is widely expected. Higher fuel costs threaten to push inflation above the 4.3% recorded in February and potentially stall the Central Bank of Kenya's record streak rate-cutting cycle, one of the pillars that underpinned the 2026 equity rally.
The market entered this shock exposed with the investor wealth having surged from KSh 2.94Trillion to above KSh 3.5Tn in eleven weeks, built entirely on domestic capital with foreign investors selling throughout. Safaricom's Ziidi Trader, launched February 10, captured 55% of NSE orders on day one but just 2% of traded value, giving institutional holders the retail liquidity to exit at multi-year highs. When the selling started, there was no floor underneath.
Still, falling prices also mean cheaper entry points into record earnings. Co-operative Bank posted an all-time high net profit of KSh 29.75Bn (up 16.9%), Diamond Trust Bank crossed KSh 10Bn for the first time (up 21.4%), and several lenders have declared significantly higher dividends. At 7.2x earnings, the market is repricing risk, but the businesses behind these stocks are more profitable than they have ever been.
Market capitalization closed at KSh 3,257.29Bn. Year-to-date gains have narrowed from 12.24% to 5.27%.
