NSE Adds KSh 174Bn in April Recovery, T-Bill and Oil Prices Signal Fresh Pressure

The Nairobi Securities Exchange closed April with all major indices in positive territory, recovering KSh 174.56Bn in market capitalization after March's KSh 179.31Bn wipeout.

• •The NSE All Share Index gained 5.40% to 205.34, the Banking Index led at +5.40% to 236.13, the NSE 10 added 5.15%, and the NSE 25 rose 4.64%.
• •But the month ended on a deteriorating note: the final two weeks were red, inflation surged to a one-year high, Murban crude crossed $100 again, and Treasury bill rates jumped to levels not seen since early 2026.
• •The month's most consequential data point landed on the final day: April inflation jumped to 5.6% from 4.4% in March, a 120 basis point increase driven by the fuel price hike that took effect on April 15.

Market capitalization rose 5.40% in April to KSh 3,405.29Bn from KSh 3,230.73Bn. The recovery was front-loaded: the first three weeks posted gains of 1.93%, 3.89%, and 0.54%, while the final two weeks shed 0.50% and 0.85% respectively.

Non-core inflation surged to 13.4% from 10.8%, reflecting the direct pass-through of higher energy prices into transport costs and utility bills.

Core inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.1%. This is the oil shock arriving in the real economy, and it lands directly on the CBK's desk: the rate-cutting cycle that underpinned the 2026 rally is now firmly on hold, with the next MPC decision carrying significantly more weight.

Full-year 2025 GDP growth came in at 4.6%, down from 4.7% in 2024, with Q4 the weakest quarter at 4.0% as agriculture contracted.

The final week saw the NSE pull back for the second consecutive week. The NASI fell 0.85% to 205.34, the NSE 10 led losses at -1.50%, and the Banking Index declined 1.12%. Market capitalization eased KSh 28.91Bn to KSh 3,405.29Bn. Equity turnover fell 23.54% to KSh 2.29Bn on 58.91M shares.

Breadth was significantly healthier than March: 37 gainers, 11 unchanged, 21 losers, compared to March's devastating 7 gainers and 51 losers. Kenya Airways led monthly gainers at +32.38%, followed by BOC Kenya (+24.28%), BK Group (+16.08%), Co-operative Bank (+15.93%), and Car & General (+13.62%). Safaricom recovered 8.00% to KSh 29.70.

On the downside, Flame Tree led losers at -17.05%, Africa Mega Agricorp dropped 8.07%, Uchumi fell 7.84%, and Umeme declined 6.94%.

April equity turnover totaled KSh 15.29Bn, down from KSh 19.58Bn in March and KSh 24.97Bn in February. The declining trend in market activity across three consecutive months, even as prices recovered in April, suggests participation is thinning.

Foreign investors were net sellers of KSh 1.67Bn in April, down from KSh 4.28Bn in March but still persistently negative. Only one week (Week 16, +KSh 78M) saw net inflows, coinciding with the ceasefire announcement. Foreign selling resumed immediately once tensions re-escalated.

Bond turnover fell 46.78% to KSh 32.88Bn. The Bond Index rose 0.58% to 1,174.18. Derivatives collapsed to just 32 contracts worth KSh 142,000.

Money Markets and FX

The shilling held at KSh 129.19 per dollar. CBK reserves fell for an eighth consecutive week to USD 13,226M (5.6 months of import cover), down USD 1.37Bn from the March 5 peak of USD 14,597M. The sustained drawdown reflects higher oil import costs draining dollar reserves.

Treasury bill rates moved sharply higher in the final week. The 91-day surged to 8.04% from 7.78%, the 182-day jumped to 8.21% from 7.89%, and the 364-day rose to 8.51% from 8.27%. The repricing in the short end signals tightening financial conditions and aligns with the inflation surprise.

Eurobond yields reversed sharply, rising 17bps on average, with the 2034 tenor at 8.87% and the 2048 at 9.36%.

The market trades at 8.1x earnings per Cytonn data, 28.2% below its historical average of 11.3x, with a 5.9% dividend yield above the historical average of 4.7%.

Key Rates Snapshot: Week Ended April 30, 2026