NCBA Group PLC has posted the strongest earnings since its formation on Wednesday, reporting a profit after tax of KSh 23.39 Bn for the full year ended 31 December 2025.
- •The result, up 7.0% from KSh 21.87 Bn a year earlier, marks the sixth consecutive year of profit growth for the group formed from the merger of Commercial Bank of Africa and NIC Group on 1 October 2019.
- •Since the merger, profit after tax has compounded at approximately 20% annually, from KSh 7.84 Bn in FY2019 to KSh 23.39 Bn in FY2025.
- •The lender is set to become a subsidiary of South Africa fourth-largest bank, Nedbank Group, which has had a representative office in Kenya since June 2010.
NCBA's net interest income surged 27.7% to KSh 44.08 Bn as total interest expenses fell 41.6% to KSh 24.05 Bn, a repricing of the liability book that management engineered deliberately by shedding expensive deposits.
Group Managing Director John Gachora described the approach as "strategic initiatives focused on optimizing funding costs and enhancing asset allocation efficiency," producing a net interest margin expansion from roughly 5.0% to 6.1% over the year.
Total operating income rose 16.96% to KSh 73.33 Bn. Operating expenses climbed 21.0% to KSh 45.53 Bn, outpacing income and pushing the cost-to-income ratio to approximately 62.1% from 60.0% in 2024, a 210 basis point deterioration driven partly by branch expansion to 122 locations across six countries.
Loan loss provisions jumped 46.3% to KSh 8.02 Bn even as gross non-performing loans fell 3.6% to KSh 35.83 Bn, reflecting deliberate coverage tightening rather than credit deterioration: NPL coverage reached 68.9% by the third quarter, its strongest level since the merger.
Earnings per share rose to KSh 14.20 from KSh 13.27. The Board recommended a final dividend of KSh 4.60 per share, lifting the total FY2025 payout to KSh 7.10, up 29.1% from KSh 5.50 in 2024 and the highest since the merger. The dividend will be payable to shareholders on record as of April 30, 2026, with payment to be made on or after May 26, 2026.
Why Nedbank Chose NCBA
The earnings rest on a digital lending franchise of exceptional scale with the lender disbursing KSh 1 trillion in digital loans in 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, through Fuliza, its M-Pesa overdraft product with 33.4 million users, and M-Shwari, which serves 32 million. The Safaricom partnership underpinning both products is the most consequential single commercial relationship on the balance sheet. NCBA also holds a 35% market share in asset finance, Kenya's largest.
These numbers form the core of Nedbank's investment thesis. On 21 January 2026, South Africa's fourth-largest bank tabled a partial tender offer for approximately 66% of NCBA, valued at roughly R13.9 Bn ($855 million), implying a price near KSh 102 per share and a valuation of 1.4 times book. That sits at the top of recent regional deal multiples: Access Bank paid 1.25 times for National Bank of Kenya, Equity Group paid 1.26 times for Rwanda's Cogebanque. Gachora is untroubled by the comparison. "I wouldn't say it's high," he said. "I would say that we are a premium institution."
Nedbank CEO Jason Quinn structured the deal for control, not minority exposure, a lesson drawn from Nedbank's loss-making 21.2% stake in Ecobank Transnational, sold for $100 million after years of limited influence. "It's quite hard to influence strategy with such a small stake," Quinn said. Among those accepting the offer are the Kenyatta family, through Enke Investments at approximately 13.2%, and the Ndegwa family, through First Chartered Securities at approximately 14.94%, together nearly 28% of NCBA's equity. At KSh 102, their combined implied proceeds approach KSh 29 Bn.
The deal cleared its most significant hurdle on 19 February 2026 when Kenya's Capital Markets Authority granted Nedbank an exemption from mandatory full-takeover rules. Shareholders representing 77.54% of issued shares have now committed to the offer. Fitch placed NCBA on Rating Watch Positive, signalling a potential upgrade of up to two notches on the national scale. Central Bank of Kenya approval is expected in Q3 2026, with deal closure targeted for late 2026. NCBA will retain its brand, management, and NSE listing.
