Nairobi’s future is vertical and compact, the capital’s Governor Johnson Sakaja said on Sunday while outlining recent changes to allow densification in previously low-density areas.
- According to the governor, building height restrictions in some parts of the city have already been removed.
- A proposed rezoning before the city’s county assembly would allow construction of buildings up to 75 floors in some areas.
- Nairobi’s zoning has been a major issue in recent years, as the city’s construction boom has far outpaced zoning policy and infrastructure investments.
“Nairobi is 696 square kilometers. In 2050 it will have a population of 10.5million people,” Gov. Sakaja said, “Will we expand Nairobi? No, the only place we have to go is up.”
The height rezoning is likely to be controversial in areas such as Kileleshwa and Lavington, where residents have complained of the previously high end areas becoming “the new Pipeline”, in reference to the neighbourhood on the other side of the city with a high population density and strained infrastructure.
But the rezoning was overdue, as sections of the areas already host buildings over 10 floors high. Nearby areas such as Kilimani, once exclusively high-end residential areas due to their proximity to the city, are now at best mixed-use neighbourhoods.
- In addition to the height, quality, and proximity of new buildings, Nairobi residents have also complained about noise pollution from night clubs and churches set up in residential areas.
- The capital’s last comprehensive zoning review was done in the 1970s, when it only hosted a fifth of the people it does today, with several piecemeal updates in the decades since.
- One direct result of construction and demand outpacing policy has been pressure on existing infrastructure.
“We also have substantial resources being deployed in sewer and water infrastructure expansion. Traffic, health and educational facilities as well as provision for green spaces will be mandatory in this framework,” Nairobi’s Governor added in a later post on X (formerly Twitter).
A Megacity by 2050
Nairobi’s population is expected to double, from about 5.2 million people today to 10.4 million, over the next 25 years. It is expected to double again from 2050, meaning the current city and its metropolis will have to host 25-30 million people by 2070.
Urban slums currently host two thirds of the city’s current residents but many slums have reached their limits, adding on to the immense land pressure for homes, commercial units, and common amenities. Combined with the desire for quality homes within city limits among the middle and upper economic classes, this projected demand has triggered a construction boom that has lasted for more than a decade and a half.
Proponents of vertical compact urban centers argue that it is an easier and more sustainable form of land use than urban sprawl. But Nairobi is doing both. For example, the metropolis’ built up area grew by an average 5.14 square kilometers per year from 1988 to 2014, resulting in a 320% growth rate in three decades, according to a study by Charles N. Mundia from the Institute of Geomatics, GIS and Remote Sensing at Dedan Kimathi University of Technology.
- The annual growth rate tripled between 2010 and 2014, driven partially by devolution and the implementation of a plan to grow the metropolis to ease land pressure on the capital city.
- It was expected to slow to 1.4 square kilometers per year until 2030, but devolution and rapid urbanisation may keep the growth rate high.
- Even in the metropolis, this growth has outpaced investments in infrastructure, placing immense pressure on roads, water, and sewerage systems.
The rezoning policy currently in the Nairobi legislature will likely take a while to process, including in the public participation phase. Meanwhile, the city’s construction boom, with investors attracted to prime real estate with proximity to the city centre, will continue. In addition to Nairobi’s internal planning, the capital will have to coordinate with the central government, as well as neighbouring county governments with their own rezoning plans.
Without a coordinated rezoning that includes sufficient and prompt investments in infrastructure and ecosystems, the current boom could negatively affect Returns on Investment (ROI) in the city’s residential and commercial units. In addition to the risk of a glut forcing investors to cut rents, lack of sustainable infrastructure could also lower land prices, further complicating the chances of recouping investments.
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