Morgan Stanley has recently given a global growth forecast. The firm forecasts that the global growth will recover from the first quarter of 2020 onwards. The forecast is attributed to trade tensions and monetary police ease thus leading to a reverse on the downward trend that has been going on in the past seven quarters.
A bank analyst from the firm stated that easing trade tensions which is the key factor in the global downturn will lead to business uncertainty and thus in turn make policy stimulus more effective.
Morgan Stanley projects a global economic growth of 3.2% next year compared to 3% in 2019. This growth projection will however depend on the US-China trade talks and when Trump’s administration’s next round of tariffs that is scheduled for Dec 15th go into effect.
The global growth in the last quarter of this year is expected to clow to 2.8% and a recovery will be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2020. United States will experience slower growth as emerging markets drive much of the recovery. US growth is expected to slow from 2.3% in 2019 to 1.8% in 2020.
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