The mobile money sector showed signs of strain in May, with the number of transactions dropping nearly 30% even as the overall value of transfers edged higher, highlighting a shift toward high-value payments and a potential retreat in small-scale use.
- •The country recorded 214.5 million transactions in May, down from 303.1 million in April, according to the latest report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
- •The figures suggest that while mobile money remains a pillar of Kenya’s financial system, the base of small, frequent payments slightly weakened.
- •Active subscriptions to mobile money services also fell to 85.6 million from 86 million, according to data from the Central Bank of Kenya, even as the number of registered agents rose by 6,405 to 424,404.
The overall transaction value rose from KSh 699 billion in April to KSh 713 billion in May. The surge in value suggests that businesses and higher-income users could still be moving money.
This shift coincides with M-Pesa’s market share falling to 90.8% in Q1 2025, as Airtel Money climbed to 9.1% amid aggressive pricing and agent network growth. The weakening of M-Pesa’s network effect and the rise of competition may be reshaping how, where, and why Kenyans transact.
Other factors may include the effect of the economic strain on households, which has muted spending. Transaction costs, for example, may influence consumers to prioritise using mobile money only for substantial high-value transactions.
The government faces fiscal constraints and mulled M-Pesa surveillance in the Finance Bill 2025. Although this proposal was dropped over fears of plunging the country back to the cash economy, many Kenyans are not oblivious of its resurgence. Mobile money remains an extremely valuable ground for increased taxation and financial surveillance.
