Kenya’s mobile money ecosystem showed signs of cooling in September, even as agency networks continued to expand, new data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows.
- •The number of active mobile money agents rose to 456,700 in September, up from 451,200 in August.
- •According to the latest Leading Economic Indicators report, total mobile money transactions fell to 210.4 million in September from 221.1 million a month earlier, while the value of transactions dipped marginally to KSh 684.8 billion compared to KSh 688.4 billion in August.
- •The contraction comes at a time of tighter household cashflows, moderated business activity and easing inflation.
Kenya’s annual inflation rate stood at 4.6 per cent in September, edging up slightly but remaining within the Central Bank’s target range.
Mobile money subscriptions, which cover active, inactive and dormant accounts, also softened, slipping to 87.0 million, a decline of about 500,000 accounts from August. Analysts say the slowdown mirrors broader shifts in user behaviour as fintechs, banks and telcos intensify competition for customers.
“Subscription numbers may be flattening as the market approaches saturation, but value per user is where the sector’s next growth wave will emerge,” said a Nairobi-based payments analyst, citing increased uptake of savings, credit and merchant services layered on mobile money rails.
Despite the softer numbers, the rise in agent outlets points to strong liquidity confidence, a critical factor in rural and peri-urban economies where cash-out services dominate. The data indicates that while consumer transactions have slowed, deeper structural changes may be reshaping the market. A growing preference for merchant payments and bank-to-wallet transfers appears to be consolidating multiple micro-transactions into fewer, higher-value movements. At the same time, digital credit products offered by banks and mobile lenders continue to gain traction, while competition from app-based fintech wallets is steadily rising.
The latest Communications Authority (CA) quarterly sector report reinforces this picture of a reshaping market. Safaricom’s M-Pesa remains dominant with more than 96 per cent share of mobile money subscriptions, but its grip has marginally tightened as Airtel Money and Telkom’s T-Kash record incremental gains.
Airtel Money’s market share rose to just over 3 per cent, driven by its aggressive zero-rated wallet-to-bank transfer strategy. The CA report shows that while M-Pesa still controls the overwhelming majority of transaction value and volume, alternative providers are growing faster in relative terms, particularly in merchant payments and cross-platform transfers.
