Kenya’s exports are projected to grow by USD10.2 billion(over Sh1.1 trillion) by 2030, new research by Standard Chartered has revealed.
According to the research, titled ‘Future of Trade 2030: Trends and Markets to Watch’, the rise in exports will be driven by among others, output from the manufacturing sector, agriculture and food, textile and apparel, and metal and minerals.
The report projects that global exports will grow by 70 per cent from $17.4 trillion (Sh198 trillion) to $29.7 (about Sh338.1trillion) over the next decade.
“The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalization is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents,” Makabelo Malumane, Head Transaction Banking Standard Chartered.
Standard Chartered have listed 13 markets as the drivers for the growth, identifies major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade.
China, Kenya’s biggest import source, is expected to remain dominant with other markets being the US, India, UK, Japan, Germany, Thailand, Netherlands, Singapore, UAE, Vietnam, South Korea and Philippines.
Uganda and the USA are expected to continue being the leading export corridors for Kenya, accounting for 11 per cent and 9 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively.
Further, Asia, Africa and the Middle East are expected to see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years.
The research also found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism.
However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
“Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade. This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains,” Makabelo Malumane.
The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.
Read also; Kenya Exports Jump by KSh 20 Billion Despite Pandemic.
