A recent poll by The Kenyan Wall Street asked over 2,300 respondents, “If you were voting in the upcoming US election, who are you casting a ballot for,” former President Donald Trump received 50.7% of Kenyans’ votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris receiving 49.3%.
This poll paints a different picture from a similar TKWS poll run in April 2024 showing that Kenyans preferred Donald Trump overwhelmingly to Joe Biden by a margin 63.1% to 36.9%. Kenyans’ preference for Donald Trump appears to have fallen by 19.6% upon Joe Biden’s exit from the Presidential race and endorsement of his Vice President Kamala Harris.
- The New York Times is reporting that Donald Trump currently has a 1% lead of Kamala Harris, however when adding third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the mix, Trump and Harris each have 44% with RFK Jr. picking up 5% of the vote.
- Publications such as The Washington Post are reporting that Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has brought energy back into Democratic Party voters across many states.
Kenyans don’t get a vote – why does it matter?
Kenyans may not be voting in the US Presidential Election in November but it would be incorrect to assert that the election has no impact on Kenyan citizens, government, and the private sector.
As I have mentioned in a previous article, “[t]he US election will influence five key factors here in Kenya: Economic Relations, Foreign Aid and Investment, Diplomatic Relations, Global Influence, and Security Cooperation.” Now that Kenya is labeled as a ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’ of the United States, there is even more reason for Kenyans to be watching the election closely.
Debates such as Kenya’s involvement in Haiti to Kenya’s participation in foreign summits and conferences will all be impacted by the US election. One topic of great interest to Kenya’s business community is also the country’s trade relationship with the US.
In 2020, President Trump and President Uhuru Kenyatta began free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. Upon his swearing in 2021, President Biden terminated the FTA negotiations and instead launched the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) in July 2022. As the STIP negotiations near their second year, more details about the potential agreement are coming to light – raising excitement and condemnations in different industries.
In early May, Kenya and the US hosted its 5th round of negotiations on STIP. While the US has shown great willingness to conclude negotiations and finalize STIP ahead of November’s US election, it is unclear at the moment whether or not this will happen.
