Kenya’s external trade in 2025 revealed a notable reconfiguration of demand, with resilient African and European markets offsetting a sharp downturn in Asian markets, while import dependence deepened and the current account deficit widened despite stronger financial inflows.
- •Africa remained the backbone of Kenya’s export earnings, rising by 6.4% to KSh 452.8 billion in 2025 from KSh 425.6 billion a year earlier, according to the latest issue of the Economic Survey by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
- •The East African Community (EAC) absorbed 77.6% of Kenya’s exports to Africa, with Uganda as the standout market, expanding 28.8% to KSh 162.4 billion and reinforcing its position as Nairobi’s largest single export destination.
- •The current account deficit widened to KSh 373.3 billion in 2025 from KSh 285.5 billion a year earlier, as import growth outpaced export gains and secondary income inflows weakened.
Within the region, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also delivered strong momentum, with exports rising by 16.8% to KSh 37.1 billion, supported by shipments of cigarettes, sugar confectionery, lubricants, and re-exported petroleum products.
South Africa added to the regional strength with a 17.9% increase, while Zambia and other smaller African markets also posted gains.
Europe also provided the second pillar of export resilience, expanding to KSh 264 billion in 2025 from KSh 246.9 billion. Growth was broad-based across Western Europe, led by Italy, which surged 50.2%, Belgium at 32.8%, France at 18.7%, and Germany at 12.2%. The expansion was anchored in higher-value agricultural exports, particularly coffee, macadamia nuts, and vegetable oils. Exports to Eastern Europe also strengthened, with Kazakhstan nearly doubling earlier gains to KSh 14.7 billion, largely driven by tea exports.
Against this backdrop of regional strength, Asia emerged as the primary drag on Kenyan export performance. Total exports to the region fell 13.2% to KSh 275.7 billion. The decline was widespread across key markets; China contracted 35.7%, Saudi Arabia 38.3%, the United Arab Emirates 23.3%, India 8.3%, and Yemen 66.4%. The downturn reflected reduced shipments of tea, titanium ores, macadamia nuts, and re-exported jet fuel.
Total exports to the Americas declined by 4.4% to KSh 90.1 billion. The United States, Kenya’s dominant market in the region, declined 10.3% to KSh 79.7 billion, driven by lower exports of titanium ores and apparel products as well as reduced re-exports of jet fuel. However, Canada stood out with an 82.3% growth in exports to KSh 4.8 billion, largely due to increased coffee shipments.
Imports, and a Wider Trade Deficit
On the import side, structural dependency on Asia deepened further. The region accounted for 70% of Kenya’s total import bill in 2025, up from 66.4% the previous year, driven primarily by China, India, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. China remained the single largest source of imports at KSh 671.2 billion, supplying machinery, steel products, fertilizers, and industrial inputs.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remained critical suppliers of petroleum products. India contributed KSh 293.0 billion, dominated by petroleum products and motorcycles, while Japan and Malaysia also expanded their footprint through industrial equipment and refined goods.
Europe’s import contribution weakened significantly, falling to KSh 347.1 billion from KSh 411.9 billion. The Netherlands and Belgium recorded steep declines, particularly in refined fuels, while imports from the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe also contracted. Russia’s imports dropped sharply to KSh 33.3 billion, reflecting reduced purchases of fertilizers and wheat.
The Americas also saw reduced import demand, falling 15.2% to KSh 182.4 billion. The United States remained the largest supplier in the region at KSh 135.9 billion, although lower imports of helicopters and industrial equipment contributed to the decline. Brazil’s agricultural exports such as sugar to Kenya also fell sharply, while Argentina provided a partial offset through modest growth.
Africa’s import bill rose moderately to KSh 283.5 billion, driven by increased inflows from Eswatini, Uganda, and Egypt, particularly sugar and food commodities. Trade with Tanzania saw a contraction, as their exports to Kenya fell by 14% while what they import from Kenya fell by 5.3%.
Remittances also declined to KSh 661.2 billion, adding further pressure to the balance of payments. Merchandise exports rose modestly to KSh 1.685 trillion, supported by agricultural products such as coffee, horticulture, and vegetable oils, but this was insufficient to offset a KSh 3.063 trillion import bill driven by machinery, vehicles, steel, and fuel.
