After two decades of tariff protection, Kenya has opened its sugar market to regional competition, betting structural reforms and private mill leasing offset higher local production costs.
- •The shift followed the lapse of the COMESA sugar safeguard on 30 November 2025, ending a regime adopted in 2001 to shield farmers and millers from cheaper imports while the sector restructured.
- •During the safeguard, sugar output rose 76% from 2022 to 815,454 metric tonnes, while cane acreage expanded 19.4% to 289,631 hectares.
- •During the safeguard period, annual imports averaged about 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes from the COMESA region.
State-owned mills moved to long-term private leasing aimed at restoring capacity, tightening governance, and improving farmer payments.
Even so, supply arithmetic still drives the market. National sugar demand stands near 1.1 million tonnes a year. Domestic production falls short, anchoring Kenya to imports. mports continue under controlled frameworks to stabilise supply and prices, highlighting that production gains alone have not delivered self-sufficiency.
Cane volatility explains why. Delivery data over the past 15 years shows sharp swings rather than a steady climb. Deliveries peaked at a record 9.33 million tonnes in 2024.
In 2025, deliveries for January to October dropped to 5.53 million tonnes, about 41% below the 2024 peak.
This volatility carries direct consequences for farmers and prices.
At the consumer level, tighter domestic supply raises the risk of price pressure, particularly when imports face logistical delays or foreign exchange constraints.
