Kenya’s trade flows are shifting decisively toward Asia, as new data shows a surge in imports from China and the Gulf while exports to traditional African partners contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2025.
- •The shift reflects deeper integration with Asian supply chains and reveals vulnerabilities in Kenya’s long-standing trade ties across the continent.
- •According to the latest data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Asia accounted for 68.3% of Kenya’s total imports in the first three months of the year, equivalent to KSh 445.6 billion.
- •This marks a notable expansion from the previous year due to a sharp rise in shipments from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Imports from China alone jumped to KSh 148.6 billion, up from KSh 126.0 billion a year earlier, driven by machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods. The Gulf states recorded even steeper increases due to higher purchases of petroleum products, with imports from Saudi Arabia doubling to KSh 19 billion and those from UAE rose 37.4%. Other East and Southeast Asian economies also strengthened their position: imports from Indonesia climbed 50.6%, and those from Japan rose 12.8%.
The growing presence of Asia in Kenya’s import mix has coincided with a notable retreat in trade with Africa. Exports to the continent, which traditionally account for the largest share of Kenya’s overseas sales, declined 10.1% in value compared to the same period in 2024. Total African-bound exports stood at KSh 102.2 billion, down from KSh 113.8 billion due to weaker demand from key regional partners.
Shipments to Egypt plunged 38.6%, while those to Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and South Sudan fell 34.2%, 20.3%, and 19.8% respectively. Only a few continental markets offered respite: exports to Burundi rose 46.9%, and those to South Africa were up 7.5%.
Kenya’s trade with Europe and the Americas also showed signs of weakening as imports from Europe fell 20.9% year-over-year to KSh 83.4 billion, led by steep declines from the Netherlands and Belgium, both down over 70%. Import expenditure from the United States and other American countries shrank 22.5% to KSh 50.5 billion due to reduced purchases of aircraft, wheat, and diagnostic equipment.
Asia’s growing dominance as a source of imports, especially in oil, capital goods, and industrial machinery, suggests a deeper reliance on external production networks. At the same time, Kenya’s weakening export performance in Africa and Europe raises questions about competitiveness and market access for its key products, including tea, cut flowers, and manufactured goods.
These shifts in Kenya’s trade geography come as the country’s overall export earnings declined 6.9% to KSh 276.7 billion in the first quarter, while imports contracted 4.5% to KSh 652.3 billion. The shift also comes amid a strengthening Kenyan shilling, which may have made imports slightly more affordable while squeezing the earnings of exporters paid in foreign currencies.
As Kenya adjusts to new trade realities, the country faces a widening strategic imbalance: more dependent on Asia for goods it consumes, while struggling to hold ground in traditional markets where it sells its own.
