On January 20th, Donald J Trump was sworn in for his second and final term as the President of the United States, four years after he lost to outgoing President Joe Biden.
The switch from a Democrat to a Republican to a Democrat to a Republican again in the last decade indicates the shifting internal dynamics among voters, and has carried with it extensive ramifications in Washington’s foreign policy shifts.
Each administration treats foreign affairs as a critical issue, closely tied to national security, trade, competition, and geopolitical influence. Under Trump’s first presidency, his unpredictable stances on multiple issues rattled traditional diplomats, but he was also praised by some foreign leaders who prefer his transactional, no-holds, non-interventionist stances.
In his second presidency, these are some of the positions whose office holders* will shape and implement Trump’s foreign policy stance towards African countries, both individually and as a bloc. In addition to balancing contextual, historical and emerging realities, the office holders will also have to implement Trump’s unpredictable stances, which have seen him revive suggestions to annex Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, for example, complicating work for diplomats on the ground.
*This article will be updated with nominees and confirmations as and when they happen.
Secretary of State
In Washington’s structure, the Secretary of State is the country’s senior most diplomat and principal advisor to the president on foreign affairs. This means that whoever holds the position is tasked with, among other things, leading negotiations on foreign affairs, and advising on appointments of diplomatic representatives.
Trump nominee, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, was confirmed by Senate just hours after the president was sworn in. Rubio inherits multiple crises, of which Washington’s relations with Africa are at best a secondary priority. These include the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which kicked in just a day before the inauguration, and seeking a fast resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The former has a direct impact on Africa, particularly Egypt, whose location as Gaza’s neighbour gives it an outsized role as a critical North African ally. It also ramifications for the Red Sea trade route, where maritime shipping has been disrupted by increased attacks from Yemen.
Rubio will also lead Washington’s assault against what it sees as China’s growing influence across the globe, including in Africa. Among the related Biden era policy changes that Trump is unlikely to undo is the interest in closer relations with Angola, which included the $1bn Lobito Rail Corridor. This will also bring the Morrocco-Western Sahrawi-Algeria issue into new focus, with Rubio seen as a strong support of Rabat, and a detractor of Algeria’s continued relationship with Moscow.
He also has to contend with a deeply embedded desire among key Trump supporters to recognise Somaliland partially as a counterbalance to China’s influence in Djibouti. But Rubio would need to balance between this internal policy desire with the realities of how it could affect the delicate balance in the Horn, and the interweaving politics and conflicts within.
Rubio is inheriting not just a busy desk, but one that has been under attack as its critical roles have been whittled down by different policy making bodies such as the National Security Council (NSC) as well as Trump’s own shunning of traditional diplomacy.
The Diplomatic Corps
As frontline diplomats, US ambassadors to African countries tend to have an outsized role in shaping how Washington responds to emerging issues, and navigates its roles across the continent. While the role of ambassador has traditionally interespeded the US foreign policy and national interests with local issues of interests such as elections and human rights, Trump’s insular non-interventionist stance may reshape this in various ways.
Among the most watched appointments will be the US’ ambassador nominees for South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Egypt, and Nigeria. Appointments in the Sahel and Central Africa will also be crucial for regional watchers eager to understand how Trump intends to navigate the growing geopolitical influence of Russian mercenaries in the regions.
Pretoria is currently chair of G20, and will host the 2025 summit which might be President Trump’s first visit to the continent. The likely meeting would underscore Washington’s delicate balancing act in relations with Pretoria, which is Africa’s biggest economy and has an outsized role on continental politics.
The appointment in Nairobi will also shape how the US works with Kenya, which was recently designated a major non-NATO ally. Under Biden, the former ambassador Meg Whitman worked closely with President William Ruto’s administration. The camaraderie, which proved controversial in Kenya, resulted in a state visit by President Ruto, Kenya’s mission to Haiti, and the likely to be shelved trade deal between the two countries. It will also likely shape how Washington relates with Mogadishu, for example, which is due to hold its first universal suffrage elections this year and is engaged in an on-off diplomatic spat with its neighbours Kenya and Ethiopia.
The appointments in East Africa will also shape how Trump 2.0 handles the Sudan conflict. While the Biden administration has placed sanctions on the two antagonists, the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Trump might choose a different approach to forcing the two sides to reach an agreement soon. In his first term, he removed sanctions on Khartoum as part of a deal to recognise Israel.
United States Trade Representative’s Office of African Affairs
The USTR wing develops and coordinates US trade and investment policy in sub-Saharan Africa. It is in charge of the twenty five year old AGOA, which was extended in 2015 and is due to expire this year. The office is also in charge of US support for the African continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Since 2022, the US and Kenya have been in negotiations for the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) whose future now hangs in the balance.
Assistant Secretary of State for Africa
Most Washington watchers predict that President Trump will nominate Peter Pham for this or a related role. Pham, who previously served in other roles in the Great Lakes and the Sahel, is a scholar on Africa with a deep understanding of Washington’s relations with the region.
Among his priority areas is the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which he’s previously stated should be linked to the United States’ national security and foreign policy priorities. This would directly affect some countries in the region, especially South Africa, forcing them to choose between maintaining friendly relations with Washington’s traditional adversaries such as Iran, China, and Russia, and how they navigate critical issues such as relations with Israel.
If Pham is confirmed for the role, this might see Washington take on a more adversarial role with Pretoria, since Africa’s economic giant is part of BRICS, and has taken Israel to the International Court of Justice on charges of genocide. But any moves would need to be carefully balanced with the likelihood that an adversarial stance might push Pretoria even further East.
Africom Head
The current head of the US Africa Command, which is headquartered in Germany, is Gen. Michael E. Langley, who has held the position since August 2022.
The geographic combatant command oversees US military operations in Africa, and has been involved in several fronts across the continent. On Christmas Eve, just weeks after Trump’s election, Africom said that it had conducted a drone strike in Somalia against Al-Shabaab militants. The terror group later confirmed that a senior commander had been killed in the strike.
The Biden administration reversed a decision by Trump to withdraw US troops from Somalia, and some of the new administration’s policy hawks have said he’s likely to go back to his original stance. This would see US troops, currently estimated at several hundred playing an advisory role, withdrawn from the country again.
“…we do not have an effective partner in Mogadishu, and there are no U.S. national security interests that justify risking American treasure — much less American blood — in Somalia that cannot be handled offshore or from nearby bases,” Pham said recently.
Pham was expressing a stance drawn from a wider skepticism by Trump about Africom’s importance to US foreign policy interests, which is partially driven by more focus on priority areas -such as China and the Middle East-, and the fact that militant groups from the continent rarely pose a direct threat outside the region.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for African Affairs
The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs advises the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs on policy and security issues related to countries on the African continent.
The position is currently held by Maureen Farrell.
US Ambassador to the United Nations
Africa will be closely watching how the US ambassador to the UN navigates critical issues, especially around the ongoing discussions to give the continent two permanent seats in the UN Security Council, and whether the new Trump administration revives plans to defund UN peacekeeping missions.
The latter is of critical interest to policymakers in various parts of the continent, as it has direct ramifications on regional and domestic security. Trump has nominated Elise Stefanik, a former UN official and Republican congresswoman for New York, for the role. Given the US’s key role as a veto-wielding permanent member of the UN Security Council, a key funder for the UN, and the host of the global body’s headquarters, the appointment is critical.
Among the issues Stefanik will likely take a lead on is the selection process for a new Secretary General to replace Antonio Guterres in 2026, the campaign to grant Africa two permanent non-veto seats in the UNSC, and the funding of UN operations.
National Security Council’s Africa Desk
Among the top nominees for this role is Joe Foltz, who currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Africa Subcommittee, and has previously served in senior roles at USAID. In Trump’s first role, he served on the National Security Council.
The NSC role is critical to how Washington’s foreign policy and national securities priorities shape its Africa policy. Among the issues that will likely be at play are the statehoods of the Western Sahara and Somaliland, and the deployment (and withdrawal) of sanctions to achieve specific results.
National Security Council’s Counterterrorism Chief
The NSC chief for counter terror is a critical role in Washington’s approach to terror, a base issue that’s deeply interweaved with the country’s national security approach to foreign policy.
Trump’s pick for the role is Sebastian Gorka.
