East Africa’s export recovery is no longer being driven solely by traditional partners such as China and the Gulf, with emerging destinations including Indonesia, Italy and Greece sharply increasing demand for the region’s products, signalling early signs of trade diversification.
- •Data from the East African Community’s latest Quarterly Statistics Bulletin show that while China, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa remain dominant buyers, a growing share of export growth in the third quarter of 2025 came from smaller but fast-expanding markets in Asia and Europe.
- •Total exports from the eight-member bloc rose 32.3% year-on-year to $19.6 billion in the three months to September, outpacing import growth and helping narrow the region’s trade deficit to $1.0 billion from $3.4 billion a year earlier.
- •The EAC’s top five destinations, (China, the UAE, South Africa, Hong Kong and Singapore) accounted for 58% of total exports, up from 42.7% a year earlier, underscoring the concentration risk facing the region.
Exports to Indonesia jumped sharply during the quarter, lifting the Southeast Asian economy into the EAC’s top ten export destinations for the first time. Italy and Greece also recorded strong gains, reflecting rising European demand for East African commodities and intermediate goods.
The export gains to emerging markets were driven largely by base metals, precious stones and metals, mineral fuels, and traditional agricultural products such as coffee and tea, according to the bulletin. Europe’s rising purchases were supported by shipments of minerals and processed agricultural goods, while Asia’s demand was linked to industrial inputs and energy-related products
Despite the progress, the region’s export basket remains heavily skewed toward raw and semi-processed commodities, leaving it vulnerable to price volatility and global demand shocks.
The EAC has intensified trade engagement with Asian and European markets even as it deepens regional integration under the AfCFTA framework, with intra-African trade rising to $10.1 billion, or 32.2% of total trade, in the quarter
While China and the Gulf are likely to remain central to East Africa’s trade for the foreseeable future, the rise of Indonesia, Italy and Greece points to a slow but meaningful broadening of export demand , a shift that could help cushion the region against external shocks if sustained.
