Regardless of the sector you look at, you will find compelling debates, essays and arguments that spell out why Africa cannot leapfrog, should not leapfrog, and is wasting time by even trying to leapfrog. It comes from a good place and many of the points against leapfrogging are thoughtful and valid—up to a point, that is.
It is true that drone logistics will not solve the problem of poor road networks, and that off-grid “torchlight solar” will not displace the need for industrial-scale grid energy. It is true that a lot of things cannot fundamentally be leapfrogged.
But it is also easy to miss the fact that one possible way to think about leapfrogging is as a search for ways to create and deliver tangible value today with most of the gaping holes intact. I call this, Thoughtful Leapfrogging.
From this perspective, leapfrogging is less about if-wishes-were-horses, and more about having a feel for which undercurrents are trending in the right direction regardless of how still the lake looks on the surface.
What is important is that the opportunity to create sustained value whether by productivity gains or profit is significant enough, today.
Bitcoin exists, and so does La La Land Leapfrogging, but the existence of untethered hopium does not invalidate the need to constantly seek out advantages on the edge of advancement. Especially for the simple reason that progress in productivity and the resultant political economy and social systems it creates are never static.
Just for good measure, the fact that progress in productivity and the resultant political economy and social systems it creates are never static is more than enough reason to not toss leapfrogging into the bin.
The steam engine was one of the biggest productivity-enhancing technologies. But no African state (barring outlier circumstances) would or should invest in steam engines today. The goal should not be only to catch up, but also to keep up. Thoughtful Leapfrogging means keeping both in view.
Productivity gains should be how we measure the leapfrog effect as a development parameter.
The business interpretation of this is that productivity should be able to show the capacity of being translatable into $$. Bearing in mind that it is the nature of business creation, and risk-taking, for losses to occur.
What is important is that the opportunity to create sustained value whether by productivity gains or profit is significant enough, today.
Up and away!
One area where that opportunity exists today is connecting trade execution with data and finance. In my opinion and after two years of conversations and deep reflection, this opportunity set of hard, complex, deeply rewarding and infrastructure/institution-enabling data platforms could not be clearer.
It is naturally difficult. Any leap that is not hard is not worth the title. I like to think of this as pole vaulting rather than the high jump. Leapfrogging does not necessarily mean leaving infrastructure and institution building behind. Like the man on the pole vault, it starts with recognising the need for a pole to take a high enough leap and training for the skill to clear the bar.
Thoughtful Leapfrogging is infrastructure-enabled and enabling, and the result is only evident after the fact when 20/20 hindsight vision usually sets in.
An Experiment in Progress
In my way, I’ve started experimenting to build systems that make data connected to trade, logistics and financing. The guiding question is: How do you make market information commercially useful without resorting to selling research consultancy projects? I’m taking suggestions, feel free to ping me if you’d like to learn more and sound me out.
The thesis is that one place African businesses and institutions can begin to prepare for leapfrogging is in the development of digitally-enabled formal (regional and cross-border) trade structures. I won’t be able to cover in depth the multiple structural, policy and market developments that are creating an undercurrent in this space. But a closer look at how commerce-enablement platforms like Sabi and Khula are approaching product development is a good place to start understanding how the undercurrent is flowing.
Leapfrogging can be both the after-effect of proper systems and a pull factor for developing proper systems. We should not constrain it to one or the other. If you take any side of the leapfrogging debate to the logical conclusion of its extreme, the result like most things on this side of eternity, will be horse-shoe-shaped frustration. Not all leaps will take you to space, but one will.
Abraham Augustine writes on Money, Myths & Digital Africa here.
