The InterGovernmental Authority on Development(IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced that the October to December 2023 climate forecast shows high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Notably, IGAD said there is an exceptionally high probability of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
On the other hand, probabilities indicate drier-than-usual conditions for isolated areas of south-western Uganda and south-western South Sudan.
IGAD warns that increased precipitation from October to December 2023 may contribute to flooding.
Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, noted” We have now entered El Niño conditions which, for Eastern Africa, are synonymous with wetter conditions during the October-December season.”
IGAD warns that the rains could cause havoc
IGAD said that after three years of devastating drought, this may be seen as a blessing for farmers. Still, it can quickly become a curse. The Authority said desert locusts are already proliferating to alarming levels in parts of the region and so the risk of deadly incidents has increased significantly.
The last El Niño rains in 2015/16, characterised by heavy downpours of torrential rains caused landslides, flash floods, and buildings to collapse.
IGAD is advising Governments and disaster management agencies to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods.
According to Dr Hussen Seid, a Climate Modelling Expert at ICPAC, El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its effects can influence weather patterns worldwide.
Another significant phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole is developing over the Indian Ocean and will reinforce the El Niño impacts.
October to December constitutes a vital rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, contributing 20-70% of the annual total rainfall.
The start of the season will likely occur early in parts of the region where elevated rainfall is anticipated (eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania).
In contrast, probabilities favour an average or delayed onset over parts of northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre for Eastern Africa by the World Meteorological Organization.
Its seasonal forecast is based on rigorous analysis of historical data, prevailing climate signals, and advanced modelling techniques.
For October-December 2023, the consolidated objective temperature forecast from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-usual surface temperatures for almost all parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly over Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and parts of coastal Tanzania.
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