The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects overall air passenger numbers to hit 4 billion in 2024, exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels (103% of the 2019 total).
Although overall traveler numbers in 2021 were 47% of 2019 levels, the Association projects this to rise to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024, and 111% in 2025. On the other hand, as international traveler numbers were 27% of 2019 levels in 2021, this is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024, and 101% in 2025.
In 2021, domestic traveler numbers were 61% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in 2024 and 118% in 2025.
IATA attributes this prospective of international recovery scenario to the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets.
However, Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future. The slow removal of international travel restrictions, and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions.
2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%) due to a slow recovery on international traffic in the Asia-Pacific region.
Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are also somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. IATA projects passenger numbers to/from/within Africa to recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101%).
IATA reiterates its call for:
- The removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine
- Pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travellers
- Removing all travel bans, and
- Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travellers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.
IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic.
Note: The forecast does not calculate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time-period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighboring areas. Pre-COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48.
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