Global credit rating agency, S&P Global, issued four sovereign reviews on Friday, November 14, 2025, drawing a sharp contrast between reform‑anchored stability in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, steady but stretched fundamentals in Rwanda and a severe downgrade for Senegal, which was pushed toward the edge of distress by a hidden-debt shock.
Senegal: A Looming Debt Crisis
The agency lowered Senegal’s long‑term foreign‑currency rating to CCC+ from B- and placed it on CreditWatch Developing, signaling a real risk of default if the government fails to refinance upcoming maturities following the discovery of a previously undisclosed debt stockpile.
Revised data show public debt surging to 119% of GDP at end‑2024, more than 40 percentage points above what had been reported. S&P said this places Senegal “among the most indebted sovereigns in the speculative‑grade category.”
Senegal faces a steep refinancing cliff with gross financing needs for 2026 are estimated at 29% of GDP, including $1.8 billion in commercial external debt service. The suspension of the earlier $1.8 billion IMF program has further tightened liquidity.
Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko’s administration is racing to finalize a new IMF arrangement under the “Jubbanti Koom” recovery plan. The crisis emerges at an inopportune moment, arriving as Senegal begins offshore oil and gas production once expected to deliver budget relief.
Côte d’Ivoire‑based banks have tripled their holdings of Senegalese debt to XOF 1.8 trillion, raising concerns that distress could spill across the WAEMU regional market.
Nigeria: A Reform Agenda Gains Traction
Nigeria received a markedly different assessment with S&P affirming its B-/B rating and revised the outlook to Positive, reflecting confidence in the government’s reform drive.
The agency said monetary, fiscal, and structural reforms are “yielding positive benefits.” The FX liberalization, removal of fuel subsidies, and renewed efforts to lift revenue have put macro indicators on a stronger footing.
Foreign‑exchange reserves have risen to nearly $44 billion as of October 2025, and the unified “willing‑buyer, willing‑seller” FX model has largely erased the gap between official and parallel market rates.
Nigeria still faces structural constraints with GDP per capita remaining low, inflation above 20%, and debt‑service costs absorbing a large share of government revenue.
But if current trends hold, a rating upgrade becomes plausible within 12 months.
Côte d’Ivoire: Stability and Strong Debt Management
Côte d’Ivoire retained its BB/B rating with a Stable outlook, the strongest profile among the four sovereigns.
President Alassane Ouattara’s re‑election reinforces policy continuity and growth is projected to average 6.5%, supported by infrastructure expansion and rising output from the Baleine oil and gas field.
The country is also emerging as a leader in debt‑management innovation.
Recent milestones include:
- •Africa’s first sustainability‑linked loan (€433 million)
- •A Samurai bond backed by Japanese guarantees
- •A CFA‑denominated international bond issue
- •A $1.75 billion Eurobond issuance paired with a €700 million buyback
- •A World Bank‑backed debt‑for‑development swap delivering €60 million in NPV savings
While Ivorian banks have significant exposure to Senegalese paper, S&P believes the risk to Côte d’Ivoire itself is contained.
Rwanda: Strong Growth, Structural Weaknesses
Rwanda’s B+/B rating and Stable outlook reflect strong growth prospects but meaningful vulnerabilities.
GDP growth is expected to average 7.3%, supported by investment and services. The debt profile benefits from heavy reliance on concessional loans, keeping interest costs relatively low.
**But major capital spending, especially the $2.6 billion Kigali International Airport, will keep deficits and public debt elevated, with net debt peaking near 67% of GDP. **
Current‑account deficits remain above 10% of GDP, and geopolitical tensions with the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to threaten investor sentiment and financing access.
