Global trade has absorbed four consecutive years of disruption and emerged structurally intact, with the Middle East and Africa region among the clearest beneficiaries of a sweeping reorganization of global commerce, according to Citi's 2026 Supply Chain Financing report.
- •The report, titled "Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI," draws on Citi's proprietary Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, payment flow data from the more than US$5 Trillion its Services business processes daily, and survey responses from 710 large corporations globally.
- •Middle East and Africa (MEA) recorded a 52% increase in shipments from North and East Asia between 2019 and 2024, as exporters diversified away from Western markets.
- •China's exports to MEA rose 61% over the same period, with Saudi Arabia among the primary destinations, while trade flows from MEA to Europe expanded 27%, reinforcing the region's value as a corridor connecting Asian-sourced goods to European end markets.
US tariffs rose to approximately 16.8% from 2.4% before the change in administration, yet Citi's supply chain pressure index remained subdued and near pre-pandemic levels. South Asia and ASEAN recorded a 44% increase in shipments from North and East Asia. Latin America posted the single largest individual trade flow increase globally, with exports to South Asia and ASEAN rising 82%. China's share of US imports fell to 8% by late 2025, down from more than 20% in 2018.
Working capital is also under strain. On average, 6.3% of corporate working capital is now tied up in tariff costs, with 64% of companies citing rising input costs as their primary concern. Some 65% of surveyed corporations are actively diversifying supply chains away from at least one country.
AI and blockchain reshape trade finance
Artificial intelligence has moved from experimentation to deployment in trade finance. The share of large corporates using AI tools rose 18 percentage points in a single year to 36%. Citi's Global Head of Trade and Working Capital, Adoniro Cestari, said AI-powered document processing now delivers "exceptionally high accuracy rates" while compressing processing cycles to minutes.
The broader AI infrastructure buildout is itself generating financing demand, with Citi Research estimating US$7.75 trillion in global AI-related capital expenditure by 2030, increasingly supported by supply chain finance and structured receivables programmes.
In a more consequential development, Citi completed an internal proof of concept with PwC and the Solana blockchain in which a bill of exchange was tokenized and its full lifecycle, from issuance through financing, distribution, and settlement, executed in a simulated environment. Processes that normally take days were completed in minutes. The global trade finance market is estimated at US$10 trillion.
The SME gap
Small and medium enterprises remain the most underserved segment. The report identifies AI as a tool to automate SME financial analysis and enable more dynamic underwriting, potentially shifting a cost structure that has long made SME trade finance uneconomical for large institutions.
For Africa, the stakes are substantial. SMEs account for more than 90% of businesses on the continent and over 60% of employment and GDP, yet face a financing gap estimated at US$300 billion annually. Trade finance support across much of Africa runs at 25% of demand, well below the global average of 60% to 80%.
The Citi report's finding that MEA is deepening trade corridors with both Asia and Europe signals expanding regional opportunity. Whether the financing infrastructure can keep pace will depend significantly on how quickly AI and digital trade tools reach the businesses driving that growth.
