Ghana has received a significant boost in international investor confidence after Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’with a Stable Outlook from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD).
- •The upgrade marks a turning point in Ghana’s economic recovery and reflects progress in external debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stabilisation.
- •A major catalyst for this improved credit profile has been the government’s Goldbod gold purchase initiative, which has generated over US$ 1.17 billion in foreign exchange earnings in just one month of operation.
- •Ghana is also nearing completion of a comprehensive restructuring of approximately US$20 billion in external debt.
“I assure you—this is only the beginning. We are unwavering in our resolve to fully revive the economy and deliver lasting relief and shared prosperity to you, the good people of Ghana.” Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson said after the upgrade.
Launched earlier this year, the gold programme has already facilitated the export of more than 11 tonnes of gold, helping stabilise the cedi and strengthen Ghana’s international reserves.
This success in the gold sector complements broader macroeconomic improvements. In 2024, the country successfully restructured US$13.1 billion in Eurobonds, and as of June 2025, only US$ 2.6 billion remains outstanding. Fitch estimates that just US$ 700 million of this commercial debt, with holdout risks assessed as minimal.
The remainder includes obligations to supranational entities and bilateral official creditors. The full restructuring is expected to conclude by the end of 2025.
Ghana’s Strengthening Economy
Ghana’s economic fundamentals are strengthening, with inflation projected to decline from 23% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 and 10% in 2026. This improvement is attributed to a stronger cedi, lower oil and food prices, and sustained monetary tightening. The Bank of Ghana is expected to begin policy rate cuts from July 2025.
Real GDP growth has also remained resilient, growing by 5.7% in 2024 and projected at 4% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, driven by a rebound in agriculture and sustained growth in services and industry. Despite facing a widening in the primary fiscal deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2024- largely due to pre-election spending- Ghana’s new administration has set an ambitious target of a 1.5% primary surplus in 2025.
However, Fitch forecasts a more moderate surplus of 0.5% for the year, accounting for inflation-related spending pressures. The overall deficit is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025, from 7.9% in 2024, and further to 3.2% in 2026.
Public debt is on a downward trajectory, aided by strong GDP nominal growth, fiscal reforms, cedi appreciation, and ongoing debt restructuring. Debt-to-GDP is expected to fall from 72% in 2024 to 60% in both 2025 and 2026, compared to a peak of 93% in 2022. This trend is supported by growing foreign exchange buffers, which stood at US$ 6.8 billion at the end of 2024.
Domestic liquidity conditions are also improving. Yields on T-bills have declined significantly, and the government is expected to reopen the domestic bond market in 2025. Fitch Ratings forecasts Ghana’s foreign-currency-denominated debt service will amount to 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, while local-currency debt service will remain stable around 3.8%-3.9% of GDP. Interest payments alone will account for 26% of revenues in 2025 and 2026, which remains high relative to peer economies and continues to constrain Ghana’s rating.
With strong momentum from the Goldbod programme and an improving macroeconomic landscape, Ghana is well positioned to restore credibility in financial markets and accelerate its post-crisis recovery.
