The governments of Kenya and Uganda have separately moved to reassure their citizens that supply lines remain intact as the Middle Eastern conflict continues, causing global oil prices to surge.
- •In Nairobi, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi said the government had reviewed national stock levels and confirmed that Kenya has sufficient petroleum inventories to meet both domestic consumption and regional transit demand.
- •Kenya and Uganda source all their refined petroleum products from the Middle East, making it sensitive to geopolitical instability in the region.
- •In Kampala, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development and the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) issued parallel assurances that Uganda’s fuel supply remains secure despite volatility in global markets.
According to Kenya's CS Wandayi, imports have already been scheduled through the end of April 2026 under government-to-government supply arrangements, cushioning the market from immediate disruption. The Ministry said it is closely monitoring the situation while engaging suppliers on contingency planning to safeguard uninterrupted flows.
Uganda, a major consumer of petroleum products transported via the Port of Mombasa, said its supply partners do not rely on a single source region. This diversification allows cargoes initially planned to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to be rerouted where necessary. Authorities indicated that scheduled March 2026 deliveries remain on course and that contingency measures are in place to absorb near-term shocks.
For the broader region, Uganda’s stability is a key indicator of the health of the Northern Corridor energy supply chain that serves Rwanda, South Sudan and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
The supply assurance comes as the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) continues to adjust pump prices under its monthly review framework, which factors in international refined product benchmarks, freight and insurance costs, the Kenya shilling’s exchange rate against the dollar, and domestic taxes and levies.
Even where physical supply remains stable, sustained increases in global oil prices would feed directly into future pricing cycles through higher landed costs.
Why East Africa is Cautious
The reassurances from Nairobi and Kampala come as global oil markets react sharply to an expanding U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Israeli strikes have widened beyond Gaza and Lebanon, while Iran has reportedly targeted energy infrastructure in Gulf states and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, is a critical artery for global energy trade. Reports that insurers have cancelled coverage for some vessels transiting the waterway and that shipping rates have surged have heightened fears of supply disruptions.
Brent crude rose more than $3 on Tuesday for a third consecutive session, trading at $80.89 a barrel by mid-morning GMT after touching as high as $82.37 its strongest level since January 2025.
Kenya’s regulated pricing system means any sustained rise in international benchmarks, freight charges or insurance costs will ultimately be reflected at the pump in subsequent EPRA reviews. Uganda, which operates under a more liberalised pricing regime, would likewise see adjustments driven by import costs.
The coordinated assurances from Nairobi and Kampala provide a degree of stability for transport operators, manufacturers and households. Yet with nearly a fifth of global oil supply transiting a single vulnerable chokepoint, East African consumers remain tethered to the geopolitical fault lines of the Middle East.
