The Cabinet’s approval of KSh 4.1 billion to scale up drought response interventions has sharpened focus on Kenya’s food supply outlook, even as the latest survey data show core retail prices remained broadly stable in January.
- •The additional allocation, announced early this month, is intended to support an estimated 3.3 million people facing acute food insecurity as drought conditions intensify.
- •Government projections warn the figure could rise to 3.6 million by June 2026 without urgent intervention, including in counties outside the traditional arid and semi-arid belt.
- •Data from the Agriculture Sector Survey, January 2026 by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) show that monthly price changes across sampled food commodities in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) were minimal compared to December 2025.
Mandera, Wajir, Kwale and Kilifi are currently in the alarm phase, while Garissa, Tana River, Marsabit, Turkana, Meru North, Samburu and Isiolo are among counties in the alert phase.
Acute malnutrition is rising, affecting over 810,000 children and 104,000 pregnant and lactating women.
The funding supplements allocations made in December 2025 and January 2026 for relief food, logistics and limited non-food assistance, and comes against a backdrop of seasonal price pressures beginning to surface in key food items.
Processed staples, white and brown bread, wheat flour, sugar, cooking oil, cooking fat and fresh packeted milk, recorded negligible month-on-month movement, signalling relative stability in structured retail supply chains.
However, maize-related products edged higher. Green maize, loose maize grain, loose maize flour, sifted maize flour and fortified maize flour posted modest increases in January
Maize and associated products account for a combined weight of 2.6% in the overall CPI basket underscoring their influence on inflation dynamics.
Leafy vegetables, including spinach, sukuma wiki and traditional vegetables, also registered price increases, largely reflecting seasonal factors
Insights from January Survey
Survey respondents overwhelmingly cited adverse weather conditions (98%), input price increases such as seeds and fertiliser (87%), and transport costs (88%) as key drivers of current retail price movements.
With 72% of sampled farmers relying on rain-fed agriculture, the prevailing dry conditions amplify supply vulnerabilities, a reality now reflected in the government’s emergency fiscal response.
Despite the seasonal uptick in maize and vegetables, inflation expectations eased slightly. The proportion of respondents expecting overall inflation to increase one month ahead fell to 62% in January from 69% in December, while three-month expectations also moderated
This suggests that while drought risks are mounting in vulnerable counties, broader inflation pressures remain contained at the national level, a dynamic that could offer some policy flexibility as authorities balance price stability with growth support.
Farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the upcoming long rains season, with expectations of expanded acreage for key crops.
Credit uptake has risen to 48% from 37% in November, largely to finance inputs and labour, signalling preparation for increased production.
