It’s election year in the United States and the two front runners are looking toward rehashing their battle in 2020. A recent poll of over 1, 000 Kenyan professionals by The Kenyan Wall Street shows Donald Trump leading incumbent Joe Biden by nearly double among the respondents.
In the head-to-head poll asking, “If you were voting in the upcoming US election, who are you casting a ballot for,” 63.1% supported Donald Trump while Joe Biden received 36.9%.
- Republicans will make their Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates official at the July 15 Convention in Milwaukee while the Democrats will do the same in Chicago on August 19.
- November 5 is Election Day in the US but the certification of the vote will take place on January 6, 2025 while Inauguration Day will take place on Jan 20.
- Certification is typically a pro forma event but in 2021, Donald Trump’s stormed the Capital Building attempting to influence the certification.
Why does it matter what Kenya thinks?
Truthfully, Kenya’s opinion does not have an impact on US elections. But the US remains one of the most economically and politically influential forces on the globe so the decision of Americans in selecting a president for the next four years will have ripple effects worldwide.
The US election will influence five key factors here in Kenya: Economic Relations, Foreign Aid and Investment, Diplomatic Relations, Global Influence, and Security Cooperation. All these factors have the potential to visibly impact the lives of Kenyans. Since President Ruto’s election in 2022, Kenyan government and private-sector representatives have taken numerous trips to the US.
President Ruto’s official state visit to the United States will take place this May where he will be welcomed to The White House by President Joe Biden and the longevity of any deals made then will depend on what happens in November. It is likely there will be little change in the US-Kenya policy if President Biden is re-elected. However if the election tilts in favor of President Trump, it is reasonable to expect some significant changes in the US’ foreign policy.
During President Trump’s tenure from 2017 – 2021, some commentators saw the world as ‘more peaceful’ whereas since the COVID-19 pandemic, violent conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, and Israel – just to name a few – have popped up. Some strategy analysts postulated that his administration was far more transactional than President Biden, some going so far as to call his policies insular.
Kenya’s trade deal with the US
Kenya has been a part of AGOA since its inception; however the agreement’s expiration is coming up in 2025. While the costs and benefits of AGOA can be debated, there are questions about how Kenya’s relationship with the United States will be in the future.
In 2020, President Trump and President Uhuru Kenyatta began free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. Upon his swearing in 2021, President Biden terminated the FTA negotiations and instead launched the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) in July 2022. As the STIP negotiations near their second year, more details about the potential agreement are coming to light – raising excitement and condemnations in different industries.
Earlier this week, news came to light about Kenyan chicken farmers protesting the agreement over US farmers getting the opportunity to sell their poultry in Kenya, thus increasing competition for local, small-scale farmers who struggle to benefit from the economies of scale in larger operations.
News broke on Monday in Business Daily about the US inputting certain labor law compliance measures on Kenya. Talking heads have speculated that these measures are designed to protect American workers and not Kenyans.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, it is expected that President Biden and President Ruto are to finalize the agreement before the election. However, if President Trump is re-elected and STIP is not yet active, it is unclear whether or not he would revert policy back to the FTA or continue the headway made by President Biden on the STIP.
Why do Kenyans prefer Trump: The Trevor Noah Theory?
South African comedian, Trevor Noah, postulated the question, “why do Africans love Trump,” in a sketch he did back in 2016. Comparing Trump’s quotes to the likes of Jacob Zuma, Idi Amin, and Muammar Ghaddafi, Noah’s joke asserted that Trump was the ‘perfect African president.’
Regardless, the decision of US citizens in November 2024 will have an impact across the globe at least through 2029.
