Kenyans in diaspora sent home a record US$ 450.30Mn (KSh 58.12Bn) in March 2026, the highest ever recorded, up 6.5% from US$ 422.90Mn in the same month last year.
- •The previous all-time high was US$ 445.39Mn set in December 2024, a month historically boosted by festive season sending.
- •The March print pushed Q1 2026 cumulative inflows to US$ 1,274.35Mn (KSh 164.53Bn), up 3.4% from US$ 1,232.52Mn in Q1 2025, consolidating remittances as Kenya's single largest source of foreign exchange, ahead of tourism and agricultural exports.
- •Despite the record, CBK Governor Kamau Thugge has revised the 2026 full-year forecast down to US$ 5.1Bn from an earlier projection of US$ 5.42Bn, citing Gulf corridor risks and the Iran conflict.
With Q1 2026 already at US$ 1.27Bn, annualizing the current run rate puts full-year inflows at approximately US$ 5.10Bn. Any recovery in the Saudi corridor or sustained strength in North America and Europe through the remainder of the year would put the original target back in view.
North America carries the load
The United States remains the dominant corridor, accounting for 50.4% of February inflows at US$ 207.90Mn, though its dollar value dipped 2.6% year-on-year in February, signaling some compression in the headline corridor.
Europe contributed 20.1% of February flows at US$ 83.08Mn, with the UK up 7.6% year-on-year to US$ 34.17Mn, now firmly the second-largest single-country source after the US.
Australia, often overlooked in remittance narratives, recorded US$ 20.35Mn in February, larger than the entire Saudi Arabia corridor and growing steadily.
Gulf headwinds, but contained
- •Saudi Arabia, once Kenya's fastest-growing remittance corridor, continued its decline, falling 12.9% year-on-year to US$ 14.45Mn in February after a 25.1% collapse across full-year 2025. The drop reflects Saudi Arabia's 15% VAT on money transfer transactions and a sweeping skill-based work permit overhaul that disrupted wages and contract renewals for thousands of Kenyan workers.
- •The UAE is partially absorbing the shortfall, with flows jumping 24.4% year-on-year to US$ 15.77Mn in February, overtaking Saudi Arabia as the larger Gulf corridor, suggesting Kenyan migrant placement is quietly shifting within the region.
- •The combined Gulf exposure, covering Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, stood at US$ 37.47Mn or 9.1% of February flows. Even a severe disruption from the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran would therefore shave a contained, if painful, amount off monthly totals.
The March record arrives as Kenya's FX reserves have declined to US$ 13,306Mn, equivalent to 5.6 months of import cover, from US$ 14,294Mn in mid-March, making every dollar of diaspora inflow increasingly consequential for the country's external position.
