S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Nigeria's sovereign credit rating one notch to B from B-, the country's first upgrade from the agency in 14 years, completing an upgrade sweep of all three major rating agencies within 13 months.
- •Fitch moved first in April 2025, raising Nigeria to B from B-,and then Moody's followed in May 2025, lifting the country two notches to B3 from Caa1, a near-distressed level.
- •Nigeria's gross foreign exchange reserves reached US$50 billion by March 2026 from US$33 billion in 2023, supported by a current account surplus projected to widen to 5.8% of GDP in 2026 from 4.8% in 2025.
- •The Dangote refinery, operating at near-maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, exported 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline in March 2026, making Nigeria a net petrol exporter for the first time in its history and removing one of the largest structural drains on the country's foreign exchange position.
Government revenue rose to 11.5% of GDP in 2025 from 7.3% in 2023, with the debt-to-revenue ratio declining toward 338% in 2026 from 503% in 2023, driven partly by Executive Order 9 centralising all petroleum inflows directly into the Federation Account.
Monthly FX market turnover averaged US$8.6 billion in 2025, a 56.4% increase from 2024, reaching $10 billion in April 2026 alone, the clearest measure of how thoroughly the 2023 naira liberalisation has reopened a market that was functionally closed for years.
The bond market priced this in long before S&P acted. Nigeria's June 2031 Eurobond yields compressed by approximately 250 basis points between the Fitch and Moody's upgrades in 2025. In November 2025, a US$2.35 billion Eurobond drew US$13 billion in demand, oversubscribed by 477%, the largest subscription level the country has ever recorded.
The upgrades do not resolve Nigeria's social deficit. Poverty rates have risen to 50% of the population from 30% before 2020. Food insecurity affects 31 million people, up from approximately 4 million in 2019. Unemployment sits at approximately 30%.
The reforms that earned the upgrade, subsidy removal and naira depreciation, are the same policies that drove those numbers higher. S&P flags them directly as a risk to reform continuity ahead of the 2027 general election, particularly if rising fuel costs linked to the Middle East war generate sufficient pressure to reverse the subsidy decision.
The rating remains five notches below investment grade. Nigeria's revenue-to-GDP ratio at 12.4% in 2026 is still among the lowest of any rated sovereign globally.
