Aliko Dangote has said he is leaning toward Kenya's Mombasa as the site of a planned 650,000-barrel-per-day East African oil refinery, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
- •The development comes days after Tanzania's president publicly revealed she had no prior knowledge of the original Tanga announcement and had not approved the project.
- •The shift puts a US$15 billion to US$17 billion investment decision in flux, with no host government confirmed, no agreements signed, and a diplomatic row between Kenya and Tanzania now reshaping what was presented just over two weeks ago as a settled regional plan.
- •Mombasa handles the bulk of East Africa's fuel imports and anchors the Kenya Pipeline Company network, which distributes refined products to Uganda, Rwanda, and beyond.
In the FT interview, Dangote was unambiguous on his preference. "I'm leaning more towards Mombasa because Mombasa has a much larger, deeper port," he said, adding that Kenya's larger economy and higher fuel consumption gave it a advantage. He deferred the final location decision to Kenyan President William Ruto. "The ball is in the hands of President Ruto. Whatever President Ruto says is what I'll do," he said.
The project first emerged publicly at the inaugural Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi on April 23, where Ruto, alongside Dangote and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, announced plans for a joint East African refinery in Tanga, Tanzania. Dangote pledged to replicate his Lagos complex within four to five years if regional governments supported the initiative.
Five days later, at the Kenya Mining Investment Conference in Nairobi, Ruto went further. "We have made the decision that we are going to do this together. We are going to harness the synergies of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and South Sudan so that we can have one big refinery here," he said.
When Ruto arrived in Dar es Salaam on May 4 for a state visit, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan delivered a rare public reprimand at a joint press briefing. "While we were speaking inside, I pressed Ruto and asked him: you went ahead and announced a refinery in Tanga which I wasn't aware of. He will explain himself why he made that announcement," Suluhu said. Ruto acknowledged the misstep and admitted his direct discussions had involved Museveni alone. He told the Tanzanian public he would have proposed Mombasa had he foreseen the reaction.
The following day Ruto addressed Tanzania's parliament in Dodoma, only the second Kenyan president to do so, defending the proposal in Swahili and arguing he had offered Tanga to Tanzania out of regional solidarity rather than take the investment to Kenya. The two leaders signed eight MoUs and set a June 30 deadline to eliminate bilateral non-tariff barriers.
Six days later Dangote's FT interview surfaced his Mombasa preference. The port argument was always available and always pointed toward Kenya. The question the timeline raises is why it took a public diplomatic confrontation between two heads of state to bring that preference to the surface.
The refinery also faces a supply question: according to The East African, the four countries initially named as crude suppliers can collectively deliver approximately 281,000 barrels per day at current production levels, less than half the plant's 650,000-barrel nameplate capacity.
