Donald Trump’s first presidency has often been described as transactional, prioritizing “America First” policies that reshaped U.S. foreign relations.
- •While Africa was not a central focus during his first term, his administration’s actions indirectly influenced the region.
- •Trade relations shifted with a preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks like AGOA, while rhetoric around trade imbalances and competition with China signaled a broader strategic interest.
- •However, this limited engagement left many African nations without clear direction on U.S. priorities for the continent.
Economic Impacts of Trump’s Policies
Trump’s trade policies, particularly his tariffs on Chinese goods, created ripple effects in global trade flows and commodity prices, challenging many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies reliant on exports to major markets like China.
“Sub-Saharan economies were caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. The devaluation of currencies and the tightening of global financial markets under Trump’s policies placed further strain on already vulnerable economies.” David Cowan, Citi’s Chief Economist for Africa, highlights.
Cowan also points to the limited focus on African debt sustainability during Trump’s first term. Many SSA countries, heavily dependent on external borrowing and Eurobonds, struggled with fiscal challenges exacerbated by a lack of concerted U.S. support for debt restructuring.
Trump’s First Visit to Africa
According to Cowan, Trump’s upcoming visit to Africa during the 2025 G20 Summit in South Africa marks a turning point in U.S.-Africa relations. As the first U.S. president to attend a G20 Summit on African soil, the visit validates the continent’s rising global relevance.
“Trump’s America First policy deprioritized Africa in traditional diplomatic terms, but his administration’s actions on trade and tariffs indirectly influenced SSA economies, particularly through global supply chains and shifting investor sentiment.” He adds that the visit offers African leaders an opportunity to reengage with the U.S. and reposition the continent as a strategic partner in global trade and investment.
Role of China
China’s extensive economic footprint in SSA through infrastructure investments and debt-financing agreements remains a focal point in U.S.-Africa relations. Cowan believes Trump’s Africa policy may seek to counterbalance China’s influence by promoting U.S.-backed private sector investments in critical sectors like technology and renewable energy.
“The Trump administration’s Africa strategy could center on positioning the U.S. as a viable alternative to Chinese dominance,” says Cowan. “This is particularly relevant in areas such as infrastructure and green energy, where Africa needs long-term partnerships to drive sustainable growth.”
Trade and Investment Expectations
Under Trump’s leadership, the pivot toward bilateral trade deals is likely to continue, potentially reshaping frameworks like AGOA. Cowan notes, “Trump’s emphasis on balanced trade could mean stricter conditions for African exports, but it also presents opportunities for nations with robust industrial bases to negotiate favorable terms.”
Cowan cautions, however, that Trump’s transactional approach may limit the scope of long-term partnerships, particularly in the context of regional initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).