Last weekend’s attempted coup in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has increased questions about the likely ripple effects of its political instability, as it adds on to an already long list of ongoing internal strife.
- •On Sunday, the country’s military said that it had thwarted an attempted coup against the government of President Felix Tsishekedi.
- •The coup entailed simultaneous attacks on President Tsishekedi’s official residence and the home of deputy prime minister Vital Kamerhe, who is tipped to become the speaker of parliament.
- •It was led by a formerly exiled politician called Christian Malanga, and featured at least 50 other people, including Malanga’s son and at least two Americans.
Malanga, who is linked to the United Congolese Party and the “New Zaire Movement”, was killed during the attack on Palais de la Nation. The politician has been linked to at least one previous coup attempt in 2017. The plotters likely intended to take advantage of the current impasse in forming a government, six months after President Tshisekedi was re-elected for a second term. He has since named a Prime Minister, but is yet to name a government. He also postponed the election of a speaker in which Kamerhe is tipped to win, on Saturday, just hours before the coup attempt.
Kamerhe, who heads the country’s second largest party in parliament, is one of Tshisekedi’s closest coalition partners. He previously served as his chief of staff, before he was replaced after being convicted for embezzling in 2020. He was acquitted in 2022 and appointed Deputy Prime Minister of Economy.
Zooming Out
The DRC, which is one of the newest members of the East African Community, is currently embroiled in several overlapping conflicts, most prominently with rebel groups in the eastern part of the expansive country. The most prominent of them, M23, took control of a town called Rubaya on April 30th. The town is known as “the coltan capital of the world” due to its extensive reserves of the mineral which is a key ingredient in the manufacture of electronic devices, including smartphones and batteries.
- •The rebel group has now besieged Goma, the capital of eastern DRC and home to 1.5mn people.
- •Its likely fall will likely have far-reaching consequences, in addition to the ongoing humanitarian crises and disruption of trade routes.
- •Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of supporting M23 militarily, although Kigali has repeatedly denied the charge.
Kigali has also not commented on recent allegations from Tshisekedi’s government that rebels have been moving tons of raw materials mined in the regions they control through Rwanda. The claim itself is not new; in March 2023, the DRC estimated it was losing $1bn through the Rwanda route. It is also not unique, as other valuable minerals and raw materials such as timber are smuggled from the region are smuggled through its neighbours, Uganda and Rwanda.
These issues will continue to shape Tshisekedi’s regional policy, as DRC’s geopolitical value far outweighs its many cracks. After falling out with the East African community’s peacekeeping force, Tshisekedi pivoted to SADC forces to resolve the problem. But as a member of the EAC, it will be impossible to completely ignore regional concerns about Kinshasa’s stability. For some, such as neighbouring Republic of Congo in whose capital a shell fired during Sunday’s coup attempt landed, the stability of Kinshasa carries more than just indirect risks.
The recent events in Kinshasa point towards other security and political issues likely to further shape Tshisekedi’s second term. Although the coup attempt was quickly thwarted, the success of Malanga’s group in accessing the capital, and the heavily guarded Palais de la Nation, will likely also raise questions about likely benefactors and sympathisers.
