‘More money is made on Wall Street from salesmanship than from investment ability.’
Warren Buffet
Dear Market Participant,
Another blissful month has dawned and we hope the same enthusiasm that comes with it has been extended towards your portfolio. It has surely been a rough one and the more rough it gets the more difficult it is to spot the mavericks.
Much has transpired in the previous month and what surprised us was the jugular rebound of the Zambian Kwacha. The Kwacha outperformed silver, gold and other currencies. It gained 19.9% against the dollar, while the Kenyan Shilling still hovers around the 101 level to the dollar.
Source: Bloomberg
Now let’s have a quick look at what occurred during the month under review. As a reminder an investor should always be aware that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance.
Equity Markets
In the Equity markets the All share Index remained somewhat flat and inched up by 0.05 points from 146.88 (4th April) to close the month at 146.93 points. On the other hand the benchmark NSE 20 share index fell down by 0.18% from 4,016.64 points to 4,009.26 points. As we write this report the NSE 20 Index has strengthened to 4,022.61 points (3rd May).
Source: Bloomberg
Monthly volumes reduced by 25.66% to stand at 413.5 million shares traded during the month. The number of deals followed suit and reduced from 33,224 to 24,429 deals.
Note: We have excluded the Stanlib Fahari I-Reit in the data
Gainers
Notable gainers of the month are listed in the table below.
The CDC Group Connection
ARM Cement which has recently sealed an equity investment deal with CDC Group came at the top spot of the monthly gainers with a 16.67% gain. It recently announced its full year results in which they made a loss, however, it was coincided with the equity investment announcement from CDC throwing mixed signals in the market, which so far has been received positively.
Source: Financial Times
I&M Holdings gained an 8.74% during the period under review. CDC Group Plc entered into an agreement to acquire about 10.68% stake of the lender which is currently held by German and French development finance institutions, DEG (6.25%) and Proparco (4.43%). The deal is estimated to be worth around KES 4.5Bn.
Source: Financial Times
Top 10 Gainers
| Company | 4 April. 2016 VWAP | 29 April, 2016 VWAP | % Gain | Shares Traded | |
| 1. | ARM Cement | 30.00 | 35.00 | +16.67 | 3,318,000 |
| 2. | Pan Africa Insurance | 40.00 | 46.00 | +15.00 | 48,500 |
| 3. | E.A Cables | 6.35 | 7.15 | +12.60 | 866,500 |
| 4. | BRITAM | 11.85 | 13.25 | +11.81 | 6,568,500 |
| 5. | KenGen | 7.85 | 8.55 | +8.92 | 5,343,900 |
| 6. | I&M Holdings | 103.00 | 112.00 | +8.74 | 1,735,900 |
| 7. | Kenya Power | 10.85 | 11.50 | +5.99 | 3,380,900 |
| 8. | Unga Group | 35.00 | 37.00 | +5.71 | 71,000 |
| 9. | East African Breweries Ltd | 281.00 | 297.00 | +5.69 | 3,565,200 |
| 10. | Housing Finance | 20.50 | 21.50 | +4.88 | 1,115,900 |
Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)
Losers
The losers dominated the month with over 30 counters ending the month on the red zone. Leading the pack was National Bank of Kenya which lost almost a quarter of its value over the period. NBK made a full year loss of KES 1.2Bn.
Source: Financial Times
Top 10 Losers
| Company | 4 April 2016 VWAP | 29 April, 2016 VWAP | % Loss | Shares Traded | |
| 1. | National Bank of Kenya | 12.15 | 9.15 | -24.69 | 1,200,800 |
| 2. | Uchumi Supermarkets | 5.10 | 4.00 | -21.57 | 1,569,100 |
| 3. | Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya | 246.00 | 193.00 | -21.54 | 622,600 |
| 4. | Scangroup | 30.00 | 24.00 | -20.00 | 114,900 |
| 5. | Marshalls E.A | 10.15 | 8.20 | -19.21 | 33,800 |
| 6. | TransCentury | 5.45 | 4.45 | -18.35 | 499,200 |
| 7. | Home Afrika | 1.85 | 1.55 | -16.22 | 3,564,300 |
| 8. | Longhorn | 5.40 | 4.55 | -15.74 | 547,600 |
| 9. | E.A Portland Cement | 45.00 | 39.00 | -13.33 | 17,800 |
| 10. | Eveready E.A | 2.80 | 2.45 | -12.50 | 396,300 |
Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)
Fixed Income Market
Activity in the debt market was down by almost half in April compared to March which is the current peak of the year. Total deals executed during the month were 432.
Debt Market Statistics | ||||
| January | February | March | April | |
| Number of deals | 182 | 372 | 936 | 432 |
| Bond Turnover (KES) | 21,593,790,000 | 23,651,678,000 | 70,078,333,000 | 38,138,540,000 |
Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)
April Inflation
Kenya’s April inflation dropped to a 34 Month low of 5.27% down from 6.45% recorded a month earlier representing the lowest point since June 2013 when it touched 4.91%. This is the fifth month in a row that the cost of living measure has dropped since December when it stood at 8%.
Source: KNBS, Kenyan WallStreet
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