Air travellers in Kenya are heading into a turbulent season, with fewer available seats and rising ticket prices emerging as the twin pressures reshaping the aviation landscape.
- •A slowdown in global airline capacity, triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East, is now beginning to ripple through international and regional travel networks impacting everything from flight availability to fares paid by ordinary passengers.
- •Industry data from the International Air Transport Association shows that airlines have started trimming their schedules as airspace disruptions and safety concerns linked to tensions around Iran force carriers to reroute or cancel flights.
- •Global seat capacity growth, which had been projected at 5.2% for March, has now been revised down to 3.3%.
The outlook for April is even tighter, with capacity expected to expand by just 2.7%, marking a sharp slowdown in the pace of aviation recovery.
At the centre of the disruption is the Middle East, a crucial aviation bridge linking Asia, Europe and Africa. Major hubs in the region play a pivotal role in long-haul connectivity, and any instability quickly spills over into global flight networks.
For travellers, this translates into fewer routing options, longer journeys and, increasingly, higher fares.
Routes connecting Asia to Europe and Africa, many of which rely on Middle Eastern stopovers, are among the hardest hit, with airlines forced to take longer flight paths or reduce frequencies altogether.
Even before the latest escalation, airlines in the region were showing signs of strain. Passenger traffic growth in the Middle East lagged behind global averages in February, while capacity grew faster than demand, weakening load factors and signalling early stress in the market.
For Kenyan travellers, the global capacity squeeze is colliding with another reality, rising fuel costs.Airlines are now passing these pressures directly to consumers.
One of the clearest signals locally comes from Skyward Express, which has introduced a fuel surcharge on all tickets effective April 1, 2026. The airline says the move is in response to sustained increases in international jet fuel prices, which have sharply raised operating costs.
In a passenger advisory, the carrier noted that imported aviation fuel accounts for a significant portion of its expenses, making it highly exposed to global price shocks.
“The aviation industry continues to navigate the impact of rising global fuel costs,” the airline said, adding that the surcharge is necessary to maintain “sustainable and reliable service.”
Kenya’s vulnerability lies in its dependence on imported aviation fuel, much of it sourced from the Middle East. This means geopolitical tensions in the region quickly translate into higher costs for airlines operating both domestic and regional routes.
Industry estimates suggest fuel can account for up to a third of airline operating costs, making it one of the most volatile drivers of ticket prices.
Globally, the pressure is mounting. Jet fuel prices have surged sharply in recent weeks, nearly doubling to about $197 per barrel as supply disruptions and geopolitical risks push up crude oil markets.
