Nairobi-based brokerage firm AIB-AXYS Africa has issued its August 2025 equities strategy, highlighting double-digit upside potential for Liberty Kenya Holdings, British American Tobacco Kenya (BAT Kenya), KCB Group, and Equity Group, while cautioning on NCBA Group and Safaricom Plc.
- •The firm sees the largest upside in Liberty Kenya Holdings, projecting an 18.9% gain to KSh 12.04 from the current KSh 10.09.
- •Analysts point to stable core business performance and a progressive dividend policy as key drivers of potential re-rating.
AIB-AXYS notes that the August recommendations come against a backdrop of stronger NSE performance in July, supported by lower interest rates, improving global sentiment, and robust H1 earnings expectations.
BAT Kenya follows the buy recommendations with a forecasted 10.3% rise to KSh 468.72. The report cites steady organic consumer growth, stabilizing cost pressures that could lift gross margins, and a strong dividend record as supportive factors.
KCB Group and Equity Group both carry a projected 9.7% upside. KCB’s outlook is buoyed by the acquisition of National Bank of Kenya from Access Bank and expanding digital capabilities, while Equity is seen benefiting from robust regional subsidiary growth, demographic trends, and cross-selling in insurance.
East African Breweries Ltd rounds out the top five, with analysts expecting a 9.2% gain to KSh 227.33 on resilient demand and efficiency gains.
Caution on NCBA, Safaricom
AIB-AXYS assigns a 12.8% downside to NCBA Group, forecasting a drop to KSh 58.15 from KSh 66.75. The brokerage warns that declining efficiency, evidenced by a higher cost-to-income ratio of 51.2% in Q1 2025, could weigh on performance despite growth from its expanding digital presence and new bancassurance unit.
Safaricom is pegged for a 3.9% decline to KSh 25.36. While the telco is generating strong traction in Ethiopia from M-Pesa and mobile data, competition from a state-backed operator is expected to extend the break-even timeline for the Ethiopia unit.
The firm’s coverage also maintained “buy” ratings on ABSA Bank Kenya, Co-operative Bank, Jubilee Holdings, CIC Insurance, and BAT Kenya, among others, citing solid fundamentals and measured risk exposure.
